利用统计年鉴、遥感观测、气象等多源数据，选取自然、经济以及社会流域指标，采用线性趋势法和Pearson相关性分析法，研究了新疆全域近30年(1990-2020年)自然、经济与社会发展的动态趋势及其影响因素分析。结果表明:①新疆年均气温和年均降水量均呈增加趋势，年日照时数呈下降趋势，其气候倾向率分别为0。2 ℃/10 a、7。8 mm/10 a、-14。2 h/10 a;草地净初级生产力(NPP)呈显著增加趋势，多年均值为105。31 g C/(m2·a)，变化速率为8。1 g C/(m2·10 a)。经Mann-Kendall突变分析，发现年均气温和NPP均发生显著突变;②生产总值、人均GDP、第三产业产值呈增长趋势，年均发展率分别为13。96％、11。98％、15。41％;牲畜数量呈增长趋势，绵羊在各类牲畜中占比最大;总人口、城乡居民人均收入均呈增长趋势，但城乡人口分配不均匀，收入水平差距大;③日照时数与气温、降水量呈负相关，草地NPP与降水量呈显著正相关，与牲畜数量呈弱正相关，牲畜的增多一定程度上刺激了草地生产力。人口数量与生产总值、人均生产总值呈极显著正相关。表明日照时数、降水量对生态系统、农业和畜牧业产生一定影响，第三产业发展对城镇人均收入提高有重要影响，人口数量与经济发展密切相关。
Dynamic Analysis of Natural Economic Development and Social Factors in Xinjiang in Recent 30 Years
By using multi-source data such as statistical yearbook,remote sensing observation and meteorological data,natural,economic and social basin indicators were selected,and linear trend method and Pearson correlation analysis were used to study the dynamic trend and influencing factors of natural,economic and social develop-ment in Xinjiang in the past 30 years(1990-2020).The results showed that:①the annual mean temperature and precipitation increased,while the annual sunshine duration decreased.The climate tendency rates were 0.2 ℃/10 a,7.8 mm/10 a and-14.2h/10a,respectively.The net primary productivity(NPP)of grassland showed a significant increase trend,with a multi-year mean value of 105.31 gC/(m2·a)and a change rate of 8.1 gC/(m2/10a).Through Mann-Kendall mutation analysis,it is found that the average annual temperature and NPP have signifi-cant mutations;②GDP,per capita GDP and output value of the tertiary industry showed an increasing trend,with average annual growth rates of 13.96％,11.98％and 15.41％respectively;The number of livestock showed an in-creasing trend,and sheep accounted for the largest proportion among all kinds of livestock.Both the total popula-tion and the per capita income of urban and rural residents show an increasing trend,but the distribution of urban and rural population is uneven,and the income level gap is large;③sunshine duration had a negative correlation with temperature and precipitation,while NPP had a significant positive correlation with precipitation and a weak positive correlation with the number of livestock.The increase of livestock stimulated grassland productivity to some extent.There is a significant positive correlation between population and GDP and GDP per capita.In sum-mary,sunshine hours and precipitation have a certain impact on the ecosystem,agriculture and animal husbandry.The development of the tertiary industry has an important impact on the increase of urban per capita income,and the population is closely related to economic development.
万方数据
维普
