Research on Prediction and Peaking Paths of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Fujian Province
Carbon dioxide emissions of energy consumption of Fujian Province are estimated based on the energy balance sheet of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2021.The LMDI factor decomposition method was used to identify the key factors affecting carbon emissions in Fujian Province.In this paper,STIRPAT model and LEAP model are constructed to simulate the peak time and peak value of carbon emissions in Fujian Province under baseline sce-nario,low-carbon scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario.The results show that:under the baseline scenario and low-carbon scenario,Fujian Province can achieve the carbon peak in 2045 and 2040,respectively,while under the enhanced low-carbon scenario,Fujian Province can achieve the carbon peak in 2030.The paths of carbon peak in Fujian Province are proposed from the aspects of strengthening the top-level design,finding out the background of carbon emissions,optimizing the energy use structure,coordinating emission reduction and sink increase,and activating the low-carbon market,which assist the construction of Fujian ecological civilization pilot demonstra-tion zone.
peak carbon dioxide emissionsSTIRPATLEAPFujian Province
万方数据
