Multimodal Estimation of Temperature and Precipitation in Yunnan From 2011 to 2100
Based on the temperature and precipitation data of Yunnan Province and CMIP5(Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5)models,the simulation ability of CMIP5 models in Yunnan is evaluated,and then the change trend of temperature and precipitation in the future is estimated,under the RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario.The result shows that the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble can capture the temporal variation and the spa-tial distribution characteristics of temperature quite satisfactory,but its ability to simulate precipitation is relative-ly weak.The annual average temperature shows uptrend in this region in all the RCP scenario from 2011 to 2050.Relative to the 1980-2005,the locations of the increase area of the annual average precipitation(2011-2050)are in the higher elevation of the region,and the decrease areas are located in the lower elevation region,which is on the east part.The annual average temperature shows uptrend in this region in all the RCP scenario from 2051 to 2100,and the increase part are located in the north part of Yunnan province,where the elevation is high.There will be a positive increase of precipitation in the whole region from 2051 to 2100,and with the rise of RCP emission sce-nario,the spatial increase of precipitation will become larger,especially in the western region with higher terrain.
temperature changeprecipitation changeclimate modelRCP scenarios
万方数据
维普
