露天矿山边坡受重力作用影响,其内部应力平衡破坏,受外界因素如降雨、地震和人工采动活动等因素的诱发,从而发生滑坡、片帮和崩塌等形式的地质灾害;由于其突发性、灾害性和难预测性严重制约了人民的生命和财产安全.以蠕动变形三阶段理论为基础的速度倒数模型(INV模型)、斜率模型(SLO模型)和对数预测模型(Lgt)因其简单、便捷和易操作性而在滑坡时间预测中被广泛应用.分析了 3 种预测模型的基本原理,分析了蠕变曲线加速阶段加速变形点(onset of acceleration,OOA)的获取方法,结合 3 个滑坡案例研究了不同预测模型在滑坡时间预测方面的应用情况.结果表明:3 种预测模型均能有效的预测滑坡发生时间,且在曲线拟合相关决定系数和预测时间准确性方面,斜率模型和对数函数模型效果更佳.
Research on landslide time prediction in open-pit mine under different early warning models
The slope of open-pit mine is affected by gravity,the internal stress balance is destroyed,and induced by external factors such as rainfall,earthquake and artificial mining activities,so that geological disasters such as landslide,slope and collapse occur.Because of the suddenness,disaster and unpredictability,it seriously restricts people's life and property safety.The inverse velocity model(INV model),slope model(SLO model)and logarithmic prediction model(Lgt)based on the three-stage theory of creep deformation are widely used in landslide time prediction because of their simplicity,convenience and operability.The basic principle of three prediction models are analyzed,and the methods of obtaining onset of acceleration(OOA)at the acceleration stage of creep curve are analyzed.The application of different prediction models in landslide time prediction is studied by combining three landslide cases.The results show that all the three prediction models can effectively predict the occurrence time of landslide,and the slope model and the logarithmic function model are more effective in the correlation coefficient of curve fitting and the accuracy of prediction time.
early warning modellandslide disastermonitoring and early warningtime predictiononset of acceleration
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