摘要
小行星撞击地球是人类生存和发展的潜在威胁之一.行星防御是国际上近20年来兴起的热点研究领域,也是我国重大安全需求.小行星撞击地球危害评估是行星防御重要研究内容.本文认为,小行星撞击地球危害具有概率低、危害大、随机性的特点,存在超压、热辐射、地震、海啸、全球效应五种危害类型,危害评估有防御决策阶段、防御实施阶段、地面民防阶段三个应用场景.本文总结了五种危害类型的研究现状,从模型、方法与软件三个方面重点阐述了数值仿真与工程计算这两种危害评估手段的研究进展,介绍了危害评估的输入输出与典型案例,简要阐述了小行星撞击地球力学问题研究进展,指出当前研究存在的不足,并对未来工作进行展望.
Abstract
Asteroid impact on earth poses a potential threat to humanity.Over the past 20 years,planetary defense has become a hot research area internationally,and it is also a crucial security re-quirement for our country.Assessing the hazards of asteroid impact on earth is a significant research topic within planetary defense.It is noted that asteroid impacts on earth exhibit characteristics of low probability,high hazard and randomness.These hazards include overpressure,thermal radiation,earthquake,tsunami,and global effects.Hazard assessment is applied in three scenarios:defense de-cision-making,defense implementation,and ground civil defense.The input and output of hazard as-sessment,the progress of numerical simulation and engineering computation in hazard assessment in terms of model,method and software,as well as the research status of the five types of hazards,are summarized.Furthermore the advancement of hypervelocity issues of earth impact by asteroid is presented.Finally,the current research limitations are identified,and prospects for future work are provided.
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