Land Use Change and Trend Forecast in Erhai Basin from 1980 to 2020
This paper studied land use changes in Erhai Basin from 1980 to 2020 and the trend of chan-ges in the next 20 years.Based on 5 periods of land use data over 40 years,this paper used ArcGIS,ID-RIS and Excel software to analyze the land use changes and their mutual transformations in Erhai Basin o-ver the past 40 years from land use change index,transition matrix and land evolution information map,and used the CA-Markov model of IDRIS to predict land use changes over the next 20 years.The results showed that from 1980 to 2020,the land use change in Erhai Basin showed a diversified upward trend,with cultivated land continuously decreasing,construction land gradually increasing rapidly,and the an-nual comprehensive land use change rate showing an upward trend.The CA-Markov model prediction re-sults indicated that the cultivated land area would decrease in the next 20 years,while the forest land and construction land area would increase,and the grassland,water area,and unused land area would remain relatively stable.From the evolutionary map,land changes were mainly concentrated outside protected ar-eas,while land changes within protected areas were mainly concentrated between 1990 and 2010,and the changes were not significant.In the next 20 years,urbanization would continue to expand,mainly concentrated in the Eryuan Basin,Fengyu Basin,and Haixi Bazi area.
land usetransfer matrixland use evolution information maptrend prediction
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
