Evaluation of the Realization Level of Forestry Carbon Sinks Value in Collective Forest Areas——Based on Evidence Reasoning Method
⑴ Background——Forestry carbon sinks value in collective forest areas is of great significance for promo-ting farmers'employment and income and constructing ecological civilization.However,from the current market transactions of forestry carbon sinks value in collective forest areas,the realization scale of forestry carbon sinks value is far from the expected level.How to give full play to forestry carbon sinks value has become a focus of current research.Based on the whole process of the realization of forestry carbon sinks value,this paper analyzes the internal reasons for the failure of forest carbon sinks value in the collective forest areas,constructs the cross-ing mechanism of"death valley"of forestry carbon sinks value and the evaluation indicators system of the realiza-tion level of forestry carbon sinks value based on this mechanism.⑵ Methods——On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper constructed an evaluation indicators system of the realization level of forest carbon sinks value from two dimensions of carbon sequestration guarantee mecha-nism and market guarantee mechanism.The research data were the relevant data of the 9 prefecture-level cities in Fujian Province from 2016 to 2020.The evidence reasoning method was used to integrate the indicators,and fi-nally,the realization level of forestry carbon sinks value in the 9 prefecture-level cities in Fujian Province during 2016-2020 was evaluated from two perspectives of time and space.⑶ Results——First,the transformation process of forestry carbon sinks from public value to market value is a non-unidirectional,multi-agent,multi-link and non-linear process with temporal and spatial interaction and cyclic correlation.It is affected by the limiting factors of value realization that reduce the willingness of the forest farmers from both the supply group and the demand group,thus making the transformation process difficult to re-alize.Second,as the realization of forest carbon sinks value in the collective forest areas is trapped in the"death valley",the reform of collective forest rights system and other related guarantees such as forestry market and fi-nancial policies will help forestry carbon sinks value to cross the"death valley",thus completing the transforma-tion from public value to market value.Third,from the perspective of various indicators,the realization level of forestry carbon sinks value in the 9 prefecture-level cities in Fujian Province from 2016 to 2020 is quite different,and there is no regions with both high carbon sinks and high market at the same time.The carbon sequestration level of the key collective forest areas such as Nanping,Sanming and Longyan is relatively high,ranking the top three for five consecutive years,while the market level of the areas with higher economic development level such as Quanzhou and Fuzhou is relatively high,ranking the top three for five consecutive years.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The realization level of forestry carbon sinks value in the 9 prefec-ture-level cities in Fujian Province has the characteristics of great difference,imbalance and diversification a-mong cities,and the overall realization level needs to be improved.In order to improve the realization level of for-estry carbon sinks value in the collective forest areas represented by Fujian Province,the following two policy suggestions are put forward:First,for the supply group,we shouldcontinue to deepen the reform of"separation of three rights",in order to solve the realistic dilemma of the supply group of forestry carbon sinks.Second,for the demand group,we should continue to improve the market mechanism of the forestry carbon sinks trading,in order to solve the realistic dilemma of the demand group of forestry carbon sinks.
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