Distribution Pattern and Invasion Routes of Ceracris kiangsu in China-Laos Border Area
Ceracris kiangsu infestation often causes large-scale damage and is considered one of the most important forest pests in the world.Predicting the distribution pattern of suitable habitats and the migration trajectory of the locusts in the southwestern border area of China can provide a forward-looking theoretical basis for pest control.In this study,the MaxEnt model was used to predict the current distribution pattern of suitable habitats and the dynamic changes in the potential distribution of Ceracris kiangsu under different climate scenarios by 2050s.Furthermore,the WRF model's insect three-dimensional trajectory analysis program was used to simulate the mi-gratory trajectory of Ceracris kiangsu from July 22 to July 24,2023.The results show that:(1)Currently,the high adaptation areas of the Ceracris kiangsu are mainly concentrated in the southwest of Yunnan Province,China,and the northern part of Phongsali Province,Laos,specifically in Jiangcheng County,Pu'er City and Mengla County,Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture of China,as well as Yot Ou of Phongsali Province,Laos.(2)Compared with the current suitable area for the Ceracris kiangsu under the current climate,the suitable area will expand in the 2050s under the climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP245,while it will decrease under the climate scenario SSP585.Overall the distribution pattern of the suitable area,centered around Jiangcheng County in Yunnan Province and Yot Ou County in Phongsali Province,Laos,spreading outwards,remains unchanged.(3)The simulated invasion trajectory of the Ceracris kiangsu using the WRF model is consistent with the actual timing of their invasion in the southwestern border area of Yunnan Province,China.In summer,the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones create a low-level jet stream that extends across Yunnan Province,China and Laos,facilitating the migration of the yellow-spined bamboo locust from northern Laos to Yunnan Province.Further analysis of the source areas of the locust is of great practical significance for monitoring and controlling the locust pest in China and Laos.
万方数据
维普
