青岛农业大学学报(社会科学版)2024,Vol.36Issue(4) :25-31.DOI:10.3969/J.ISSN.1674-1471.2024.04.004

山东省新型城镇化与农民收入的关系研究

Research on the Relationship Between New-type Urbanization and Farmers'Income in Shandong Province

解颖 李敬锁
青岛农业大学学报(社会科学版)2024,Vol.36Issue(4) :25-31.DOI:10.3969/J.ISSN.1674-1471.2024.04.004

山东省新型城镇化与农民收入的关系研究

Research on the Relationship Between New-type Urbanization and Farmers'Income in Shandong Province

解颖 1李敬锁1
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作者信息

  • 1. 青岛农业大学 经济管理学院(合作社学院),山东青岛 266109
  • 折叠

摘要

"三农"问题是我国经济社会发展中的根本性问题,其核心在于农民收入问题.深入发展以人为本的新型城镇化,是提高农民收入的关键举措.基于上述考虑,选取山东省2007-2021年的相关数据,采用一元线性回归与VAR模型相结合的实证方法,分析当前山东省新型城镇化水平与农民收入互动关系,探寻二者协调发展措施.结果表明,山东省的新型城镇化进程对提升农民收入具有积极的促进效果,二者相互依存、相互影响.在长期状态下这种影响具有显著的正面效应,并在很大程度上受到各自发展惯性的驱动.所以,新型城镇化发展水平的提高与农民收入的增长存在一个良性的互动机制.为了促进农民收入的持续增长,需要加速山东省的新型城镇化建设步伐.同时,应关注这种影响的长期特性,合理规划和制定相应的发展政策,以确保两者能够依靠内在动力实现协调发展.

Abstract

The issues concerning agriculture,rural areas and farmers are fundamental in China's economic and social development,and the core lies in the issue of farmers'income.Deepening the people-oriented new-type urbanization is a crucial measure to increase farmers'income.Based on the above considerations,relevant data in Shandong Province from 2007 to 2021 are selected,and an empirical method combining univariate linear regression and the Vector Autoregression(VAR)model is adopted to analyze the interactive relationship between the current new-type urbanization level and farmers'income in Shandong Province,and explore measures for the coordinated development of the two.The results show that the new-type urbanization process in Shandong Province has a positive promoting effect on increasing farmers'income,and the two are interdependent and influence each other.In the long-term state,this influence has a significant positive effect and is largely driven by their respective development inertia.Therefore,there is a benign interactive mechanism between the improvement of the new-type urbanization development level and the growth of farmers'income.In order to promote the continuous growth of farmers'income,it is necessary to accelerate the pace of new-type urbanization construction in Shandong Province.At the same time,attention should be paid to the long-term characteristics of this influence,and relevant development policies should be reasonably planned and formulated to ensure that the two can achieve coordinated development relying on internal driving forces.

关键词

新型城镇化/农民收入/VAR模型/山东省

Key words

new-type urbanization/farmers'income/the VAR model/Shandong Province

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出版年

2024
青岛农业大学学报(社会科学版)
青岛农业大学

青岛农业大学学报(社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.273
ISSN:1674-1471
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