The Dynamic New Urbanization Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on China's Economic Growth
Incorporating new urbanization into the research framework of tourism-led growth can effectively expand the horizon of understanding of the determinants of economic growth.This study constructs the dynamic panel threshold regression model addressing an important issue of modeling nonlinear asymmetric dynamics based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2019 in China through the quantitative analysis of the comprehensive index of tourism and new urbanization,and uses the first-differenced generalized method of moments estimator allowing both threshold variable and regressors to be endogenous to empirically examine the threshold effect of new urbanization on tourism and growth.The results show that,there exists a non-linear relationship between China's tourism and economic growth with significant dual-threshold characteristics due to the different levels of new urbanization,and the impact of tourism on economic growth has the characteristic of increasing marginal utility as new urbanization crosses the threshold.In this regard,this study suggests that the economic growth effect of tourism could be significantly enhanced via deepening the synergy mechanism between tourism and new urbanization,and giving full play to the role of new urbanization in the process of tourism influencing economic growth.The marginal contributions of this paper are reflected in the following aspects:firstly,this study constructs a ternary analytical framework containing tourism,new urbanization and economic growth,and focuses on the threshold effect of new urbanization on the tourism-oriented economic growth hypothesis,which not only enriches the research system of the tourism-led growth hypothesis,but also broadens the research in the field of economic consequences of new urbanization.Secondly,in terms of content,this paper jointly extends the nonlinear model estimation approach developed by Hansen,Caner and Hansen to dynamic panel data models that allow for endogenous threshold and covariate variables,specifically,by introducing a nonlinear dynamic panel threshold regression model that takes into account the dynamics and endogeneity of the model,and then simultaneously captures new urbanization development heterogeneity,and then incorporating it into the framework of the nonlinear dynamic model of tourism and economic growth,and using new urbanization,which may be endogenous,as a threshold variable,to empirically test the nonlinear dynamic threshold effect of new urbanization on tourism affecting economic growth by identifying the threshold characteristics of new urbanization that affect economic growth.Finally,the purpose of this paper is to explore the inherent"black box"of the non-linear mechanism of the relationship between tourism and economic growth in the context of the new urbanization strategy based on dynamic thinking,with a view to revealing the process of the impact of tourism on economic growth from the perspective of the new urbanization,and especially to understand the objective effects of the impact of tourism industry on economic growth in the different stages of the new urbanization,and to explore the optimal policies and growth paths of tourism development,to achieve efficient economic growth effect of tourism.The conclusions of this study provide important policy implications for enhancing the economic growth effects of industry-urban integration,especially the role of new urbanization as an indirect channel for tourism to influence economic growth.On one hand,it is necessary to change the stereotypical understanding of the linear relationship between tourism and economic growth in a timely manner,and it is not only necessary to shift the above-mentioned academic vision to a more general non-linear framework,so as to provide a new perspective for analyzing the change pattern of the economic growth effect of tourism in the context of the new urbanization strategy.On the other hand,the new urbanization strategy should be promoted in depth to comprehensively improve the quality of urbanization development.While pushing the new urbanization process across the threshold,the coupling and coordination mechanism between tourism development and new urbanization should be further enhanced,especially the tourism sector should focus on enhancing the absorption capacity of the innovative knowledge spillover released by the new urbanization construction.
tourism developmentnew urbanizationeconomic growthdynamic panel threshold regression model
万方数据
维普
