APPLICATION OF ARIMA MULTIPLE SEASONAL MODEL IN PREDICTING THE INCIDENCE OF TUBERCULOSIS IN MONTHLY REPORT
Objective To establish the ARIMA multiple seasonal model with an expert modeler to ana-lyze its applicability in predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in monthly report.Methods SPSS expert modeler was used to automatically establish an ARIMA multiple seasonal model with the incidence rate of tuberculosis in Shandong Province from January,2017 to December,2021 to predict the incidence rate from January to December of 2022 and to compare the result with the observed data to evaluate the predic-tion effect.Results ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 was the simplest model,and the R2,MAPE and normal-ized BIC of this model were 0.588,6.820 and-2.459 respectively.The results showed that the predicted fluctuation trend was consistent with the real data,and the observed values were all within the 95％confi-dence interval of the predicted value,with a relative error between 1.79％and 46.71％.Conclusion ARIMA multiple seasonal model is simple and suitable for short-term prediction of the monthly reported incidence of tuberculosis.
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