Analysis of runoff tendency and its influencing factors in the Tao River basin from 1960 to 2010
Based on the runoff data during 1960?2010 at Hongqi Station in the outlet of the Tao River basin, the runoff tendency was studied using the Mann-Kendall trend test and also studied were the climate changes, sunspot activities, ENSO cycle and underlying surface variations affecting the changes in the runoff of the Tao River basin by using correlation analysis, statistical law analysis and precipitation-runoff double mass analysis. The results showed that the annual runoff of the Tao River basin had a weak increasing trend during 1960?1969 and then it decreased during 1970?2010. The decreasing trend of annual runoff was significant after 1995. The trend of annual runoff reduction in the Tao River basin was strongly related with the reduction of precipitation, as well as the addition of evaporation in the flood season. Marked anomalies in annual runoff occurred in the maximum in the first two years of sunspot activities during 1960?1985. The runoff in the high values of sunspot activities was less than normal, while the runoff in the low values of sunspot activities was more than normal during 1960?1985. The runoff both in the high and low values of sunspot activities was less than normal during 1985?2010. The ENSO cycle had some influence on the runoff of the Tao River basin. The annual runoff was sensitive to El Nino, i.e. when it occurred, the runoff decreased. In the next year when El Nino did not occur the runoff did not decrease as much as in the previous year. The annual runoff was not sensitive to La Nina and the underlying surface variation had a weak influence on the runoff of the Tao River basin.
runoff changeclimate changesunspotENSO cycleTao River basin
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
