首页|利用DQCT实现2018年8月超历史极值暴雨的高质量模拟

利用DQCT实现2018年8月超历史极值暴雨的高质量模拟

An accurate simulation of extremely heavy rainfall evaluated in August,2018 by using DQCT

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构建较全面的双级质量控制技术(DQCT).利用中尺度天气预报模式(WRF)对2018年8月下旬华南地区一次超历史极值的暴雨过程进行高分辨率数值模拟,并用DQCT评判暴雨的模拟效果.结果表明,在暴雨形势背景场中用WRF成功模拟大尺度季风风场、西南暖湿气流与低压交汇过程,并准确复制了造成高潭镇极端降雨的中尺度对流系统.总降雨量中的中γ尺度极值暴雨中心模拟得较为准确.该模式在24 h降雨量模拟中成功复制了暴雨中心的演变过程;在6 h降雨量模拟中较好地再现了中γ尺度雨带的演变过程.在暴雨重灾区高潭镇1 h降雨量演变过程的模拟中,总体降雨趋势与实况吻合较好.定性分析结果同步得到定量指标的验证.
We established a double-level quality control techniques(DQCT).A high resolution numerical simulation on an extremely heavy rainfall process occurring in South China in late August,2018 was car-ried out via the weather research and forecasting(WRF)model,and the simulation data were evaluated based on DQCT.A comparison of the simulation data with observation data produced the following con-clusions:in the background fields,all the weather systems including various scales wind field such as the low in monsoon,the southwesterly airstreams and the mesoscale convective system were successfully simulated according to WRF;in the total rain belt,the meso-γ scale centers of the maximum precipitation was successfully copied;in the 24 h rain belt,the development of the heavy rainfall area was well repro-duced;in the 6 h rain belt,the evolvement of the meso-γ scale rain belt of the heavy rainfall were well forecasted;in the time series of precipitation in Gaotan,the hourly rainfall trend was carefully embodied;the evaluating results from qualitative analysis were also proved right according to the quantitative analy-sis from evaluation indexes.

the extremely heavy rainfallmeso-γ scale rain beltnumerical simulationdouble-level quali-ty control technique

李博、李帅康、陈超、钟水新、华灯鑫、徐波

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西安理工大学 机械与精密仪器工程学院,西安 710048

中国气象局 广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州 510080

广东省气象台,广州 510062

西安市气象局,西安 710016

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超历史极值暴雨 中γ尺度雨带 数值模拟 双级质量控制技术

2024

兰州大学学报(自然科学版)
兰州大学

兰州大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.855
ISSN:0455-2059
年,卷(期):2024.60(1)