兰州大学学报(自然科学版)2024,Vol.60Issue(1) :31-39.DOI:10.13885/j.issn.0455-2059.2024.01.005

利用DQCT实现2018年8月超历史极值暴雨的高质量模拟

An accurate simulation of extremely heavy rainfall evaluated in August,2018 by using DQCT

李博 李帅康 陈超 钟水新 华灯鑫 徐波
兰州大学学报(自然科学版)2024,Vol.60Issue(1) :31-39.DOI:10.13885/j.issn.0455-2059.2024.01.005

利用DQCT实现2018年8月超历史极值暴雨的高质量模拟

An accurate simulation of extremely heavy rainfall evaluated in August,2018 by using DQCT

李博 1李帅康 2陈超 3钟水新 4华灯鑫 2徐波5
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作者信息

  • 1. 西安理工大学 机械与精密仪器工程学院,西安 710048;中国气象局 广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州 510080
  • 2. 西安理工大学 机械与精密仪器工程学院,西安 710048
  • 3. 广东省气象台,广州 510062
  • 4. 中国气象局 广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州 510080
  • 5. 西安市气象局,西安 710016
  • 折叠

摘要

构建较全面的双级质量控制技术(DQCT).利用中尺度天气预报模式(WRF)对2018年8月下旬华南地区一次超历史极值的暴雨过程进行高分辨率数值模拟,并用DQCT评判暴雨的模拟效果.结果表明,在暴雨形势背景场中用WRF成功模拟大尺度季风风场、西南暖湿气流与低压交汇过程,并准确复制了造成高潭镇极端降雨的中尺度对流系统.总降雨量中的中γ尺度极值暴雨中心模拟得较为准确.该模式在24 h降雨量模拟中成功复制了暴雨中心的演变过程;在6 h降雨量模拟中较好地再现了中γ尺度雨带的演变过程.在暴雨重灾区高潭镇1 h降雨量演变过程的模拟中,总体降雨趋势与实况吻合较好.定性分析结果同步得到定量指标的验证.

Abstract

We established a double-level quality control techniques(DQCT).A high resolution numerical simulation on an extremely heavy rainfall process occurring in South China in late August,2018 was car-ried out via the weather research and forecasting(WRF)model,and the simulation data were evaluated based on DQCT.A comparison of the simulation data with observation data produced the following con-clusions:in the background fields,all the weather systems including various scales wind field such as the low in monsoon,the southwesterly airstreams and the mesoscale convective system were successfully simulated according to WRF;in the total rain belt,the meso-γ scale centers of the maximum precipitation was successfully copied;in the 24 h rain belt,the development of the heavy rainfall area was well repro-duced;in the 6 h rain belt,the evolvement of the meso-γ scale rain belt of the heavy rainfall were well forecasted;in the time series of precipitation in Gaotan,the hourly rainfall trend was carefully embodied;the evaluating results from qualitative analysis were also proved right according to the quantitative analy-sis from evaluation indexes.

关键词

超历史极值暴雨/中γ尺度雨带/数值模拟/双级质量控制技术

Key words

the extremely heavy rainfall/meso-γ scale rain belt/numerical simulation/double-level quali-ty control technique

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出版年

2024
兰州大学学报(自然科学版)
兰州大学

兰州大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.855
ISSN:0455-2059
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