Emergency Decision Model for Hazardous Chemicals Leakage Based on Dynamic Bayesian
In view of the leakage accident of hazardous chemicals,taking diketene as an example,an expert deci-sion-making model for the full-process of emergency management drill of the leakage accident of hazardous chem-icals based on Dynamic Bayesian Network is constructed.The model accurately calculates the probability between the state transitions,and adds the conversion costs between the different states,so as to realize the comprehensive simulation and decision-making of the leakage accident of hazardous chemicals.By integrating expert knowledge,historical cases and various influencing factors,the dependence of conversion probability on expert scoring is ef-fectively reduced,and the objectivity and accuracy of the model are improved.In the model validation phase,ex-cellent decision support capability is demonstrated through simulation experiments and diketene leakage accident scenario drills.The decision-making model provides an innovative solution for the response to hazardous chemical leakage accidents.
hazardous chemical leakageexpert decision-makingdynamic Bayesian Networkemergency man-agement