首页|长期护理服务供给对老年人死亡率的影响

长期护理服务供给对老年人死亡率的影响

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《"十四五"公共服务规划》明确了"老有所养"到"老有颐养"等民生事业发展导向,而"老有所终"作为"老有所养"的重要补充,对老年人晚年生活质量有着重要的意义.借助CLHLS三期追踪数据,利用面板二元模型与有序Logit模型,实证考察了长期护理服务供给对老年人死亡率的影响及其效应.研究显示:一是长期护理服务供给对老年人是否死亡有显著负向作用,且对老年人死亡时间有显著正向作用,其效应分别为2.3254和0.4111;二是相较于无长期护理服务人员,有长期护理服务且越偏向正式长期护理服务的老年人死亡率更低、存活时间更长,且在家庭规模、医疗服务可及性、性别、年龄等方面表现出群体异质性;三是长期护理服务供给对老年人死亡率的影响存在中介效应,其传导机制为"长期护理服务供给—自理能力改善—疾病率降低—生存质量优化".因此,需要逐步优化长期护理保障制度发展理念和评价体系等,突出正式长期护理服务供给的重要性,优化家庭护理服务供给方式,以期为"老有所终"目标实现提供政策支持.
The Impact of Long-term Care on the Mortality Rate of the Elderly
Using CLHLS tracking data,a panel binary model and an ordered Logit model were used to empirically investigate the impact and effects of long-term care services on elderly mortality rates.Research has shown that long-term care services have a significant negative effect on whether elderly people die,and a significant positive effect on the time of death for elderly people,with effects of 2.3254 and 0.4111,respectively.Compared to elderly people without long-term care services,elderly people with family or formal long-term care services have a higher and longer survival rate and time,and exhibit group heterogeneity in terms of family size,access to medical services,gender,age,and other aspects.The impact of long-term care services on the mortality of the elderly has a mesomeric effect,and its transmission mechanism is"LTCs-Improvement of ADL-Reduction of disease rate-Optimization of quality of life(QOL)".Therefore,it is necessary to gradually optimize the development concept and evaluation system of the long-term nursing security system,in order to provide policy support for the realization of the goal of"a secure end to old age".

"providing for the elderly"mortalitylong term careADLelderly

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苏州大学社会学院

"老有所终" 死亡率 长期护理 ADL 老年人

浙江省哲学社会科学规划项目教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目

23NDJC218YB22JJD630015

2024

兰州学刊
兰州市社会科学院 兰州市社会科学界联合会

兰州学刊

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.401
ISSN:1005-3492
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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