Negative Population Growth:Conceptual Evolution,Multidimensional Classification,and Economic Impacts
Negative population growth is emerging around the world,and has happened in China in 2022,which makes the construction of a theoretical system of negative population growth particularly urgent.Looking back at the history,people have advanced from the recognition of the phenomenon to the prediction of the law of negative population growth,and gradually focused on the endogenous negative population growth triggered by long-term low fertility.An analysis of the theoretical mechanism indicates that negative population growth is accompanied by population decline and ageing,which may have complicated effects on both the supply-side and demand-side of economic development.These effects can be a reduction in labor force,consumption,savings,investment expectations,and social innovation vitality,and an increase in labor participation,an upgrade of the consumption structure,capital deepening,forcing the accumulation of human capital,and promoting the transformation of economic development patterns.Negative population growth has impacts on economic factors in different directions and degrees.And the final results derive from these effects combining with each other,with multiple possibilities in different countries and different stages of development.It is the uncertainty and flexibility that provide opportunities for policy responses.
negative population growthevolvement of conceptionsmultidimensional classificationeconomic impacts
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
