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劳动生产率异质性如何影响劳动者退休时间决策?

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基于人口老化与财务平衡推定提高退休年龄是劳动生产率同质假设的静态逻辑.理论上,最优退休时间取决于劳动者退休后消费水平与休闲收益的权衡.劳动生产率是能够同时影响消费水平与休闲收益的本质性变量,对劳动者退休时间决策具有双重效应.劳动生产率异质性使不同劳动者、不同时期的退休时间决策具有明显的异质特征;国家与社会有必要对异质性劳动生产率导致的异质性的劳动者最优退休时间作出回应,从而适时优化现行退休时间政策.模拟分析表明,劳动生产率异质性决定了最优退休时间的异质特征,两者之间存在显著的反向关系;在基准情境下我国劳动者的最优退休时间约为63.16岁;若要维持60岁的法定退休年龄,则必须保持9%的劳动生产率增长率.因此,摒弃劳动生产率同质假设并重视通过劳动生产率路径缓解养老金压力、实施激励相容的弹性退休计划、不断提高劳动者与社会的劳动生产率等有助于改进我国退休政策的有效性和可持续性.
How Does the Heterogeneity of Labor Productivity Influence the Labor's Decision of Retirement Time?
It is a static logic of the assumption of homogeneity of labor productivity to postpone the retirement age only based on population aging and financial balance.Theoretically,the optimal retirement time depends on the balance between consumption capacity and leisure benefit after retirement.Labor productivity is an essential variable that can affect both consumption level and leisure benefit.The heterogeneity of labor productivity makes the decision of retirement time of different individual and different periods have obvious heterogeneous characteristics.It is necessary for the state and society to respond to the heterogeneous optimal individual retirement time caused by heterogeneous labor productivity so as to timely optimize the current retirement time policy.The sensitivity simulation analysis shows that the heterogeneity of labor productivity determines the heterogeneous characteristics of the optimal retirement time,and there is a significant inverse relationship between them.The optimal retirement time of individual workers in China is about 63.16 years old in the baseline situation.If the current mandatory retirement age of 60 is to be maintained,9 per cent growth in labor productivity must be maintained.Therefore,to abandon the assumption of homogeneity of labor productivity and attach importance to relieving pension pressure through labor productivity factors,to implement a flexible retirement plan with compatible incentives,and constantly to improve individual and social labor productivity will improve the effectiveness and sustainability of China's retirement policies.

labor productivityheterogeneityretirement timeretirement decision

刘玮、张正军

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陕西师范大学国际商学院

西北大学公共管理学院

劳动生产率 异质性 退休时间 退休决策

教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金

20YJA840013

2024

兰州学刊
兰州市社会科学院 兰州市社会科学界联合会

兰州学刊

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.401
ISSN:1005-3492
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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