Analysis of the Mechanism and Spatio-Temporal Effects of Population Ageing on House Prices——Based on the Risk Aversion Perspective
Population aging,as a fundamental fact of China's social development,is worth exploring its impact on housing prices.This paper constructs a theoretical model of housing rent-purchase choice from the perspective of risk aversion,and the theoretical analysis shows that the deepening degree of aging will weaken the incentives of residents to purchase housing by reducing the expected length of residence,which will have a negative impact on housing prices,and at the same time,the rent fluctuation will play a moderating role in the negative impact.Further,this study empirically examines the specific impact of regional population aging on housing prices using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2020,and analyses its mechanism and spatio-temporal effects.The study finds that:(1)the deepening of population ageing has a negative impact on regional housing prices,which is still valid after considering the endogeneity issue and after a series of robustness tests.(2)The negative impact of population ageing on housing prices is negatively moderated by rent volatility.(3)Heterogeneity analysis reveals that a higher birth rate weakens the negative impact of population ageing on regional housing prices to a certain extent.At the same time,the rising demand for housing brought about by the increase in population density also helps to offset the downward pressure on housing prices brought about by population ageing.(4)Population ageing has a further negative impact on regional housing prices by lowering regional consumption,reducing employment opportunities and shrinking the size of credit.(5)The analysis of spatial and temporal dynamics reveals that the negative impact of population ageing on housing prices in time shows a downward trend with the passage of time.In space,there is a spatial spillover effect,and housing prices in neighbouring regions are also affected negatively.Based on the above analysis,with the deepening of aging,China's housing market will face the downside risk,the government should plan ahead and make relevant plans in advance to cope with the possible impact of aging on the housing market,and at the same time,further regulate the rental market,and promote the stable development of the real estate market.
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