摘要
根据21世纪以来的6次总统大选结果,美国50个州和哥伦比亚特区可以分为通常支持共和党的红州和浅红州、通常支持民主党的蓝州和浅蓝州以及介乎两者之间的摇摆州.红州和蓝州在诸多方面存在明显区别,包括人口的种族构成和学历、城市化程度、经济发展水平、健康医疗、人工堕胎、宗教信仰以及对一些重大社会问题的看法等.部分区别与相关州的政党倾向存在因果关系:相对而言,一个州的大学毕业、居住在城市、信教程度低等类别选民占比越高,越倾向支持民主党,反之亦然.20世纪50、60年代的民权运动和相关立法导致美国南方由蓝变红,说明种族是形成目前红州和蓝州分立格局的一个极为重要的原因.鉴于红州和蓝州政党倾向相当稳定,美国7个摇摆州将继2016年和2020年之后再次决定2024年的大选结果.
Abstract
Based on the results of six presidential elections in this century,America's 50 states and District of Columbia can be divided into red and light red states that typically support the Republican Party,blue and light blue states that typically support the Democratic Party,and swing states that fall between.There are considerable differences between the red and blue states,including those related to residents'racial composition and ed-ucational qualifications,urbanization,economic development,health care,abortion,religiosity and views on a number of important social issues.Some of these differences can explain these states'party identification.Rel-atively speaking,a state with higher percentages of college graduates,city dwellers and religious non-believers is more likely to support the Democrat-ic Party,and vice versa.The Civil Rights movement in the 1950s-1960s and related legislation have turned the South from being blue to being red,demonstrating that race is an extremely important reason for today's division between red and blue states.As the party identifications of red and blue states are relatively solid,the seven swing states will determine the winner of the 2024 presidential election,just as they did in 2016 and 2020.
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