2024年美国大选与"后-后冷战时代"的美国外交战略
The 2024 Elections and U.S."Post-Post-Cold War"Foreign Policy
节大磊1
作者信息
摘要
相对实力的变化以及国内民意的持续冲击,使美国冷战后长期奉行的自由主义霸权外交战略难以为继.特朗普第一任期和拜登政府共同为美国"后-后冷战时代"的外交战略描绘了基本轮廓:美国的所谓"领导权"的褪色,海外军事干预的减少,海外推广民主的兴趣大幅下降的同时价值观被工具化,以及在国际经济层面的保护主义和产业政策的兴起.一方面,特朗普即将开始的第二任期的外交战略在政治、军事、价值观和国际经济四个方面依然会体现出上述轮廓.另一方面,特朗普外交无疑也有自己的特点,包括在关税、与盟友关系以及俄乌和巴以等既有冲突等具体议题领域,特朗普与所谓"深层国家"之间的矛盾,以及以"疯子理论"为指导的外交风格.随着国内外形势的变化,美国"后-后冷战时代"的外交战略将持续演进.
Abstract
The shifts in both relative power and domestic public opinion have combined to render the U.S.long-standing post-Cold War foreign policy strategy of liberal hegemony unsustainable.The first Trump administration and the Biden administration have both exhibited the outlines of a"post-post-Cold War"U.S.foreign policy,including abdication and modification of the so-called U.S.leadership,reduction in overseas military interven-tion,decreasing interest in democracy promotion while turning democratic values to instruments for strategic competition,and increasing economic protectionism and industrial policy.A second Trump administration's for-eign policy will very likely operate within those contours.Meanwhile,a Trumpian foreign policy will certainly have its distinctive features,inclu-ding its positions on tariffs,alliance politics,and the ongoing Ukraine cri-sis and Israeli-Palestinian conflict,the tensions between Trump and the so-called"deep state,"and Trump's inclination for a"madman theory"of diplomatic bargaining.The U.S."post-post-Cold War"foreign policy will continue to evolve as a result of a changing external environment and do-mestic political dynamics.
关键词
美国政治/2024年美国大选/外交战略/特朗普政府/拜登政府引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
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