Research on Calculating Method of Target Event Occurrence Probability of SFN Based on Filterability Transfer Probability
To study the relationships between events in the System Fault Evolution Process(SFEP),determine the possibility of the target event,and propose a calculation method of the probability distribution of the target event tak-ing into account the filterability transfer probability.The filterability transfer probability considers that only when the occurrence probability of the cause event is greater than the transfer probability can the result event occur.Three data forms are given,and three methods of calculating the probability distribution of the target event fault are proposed for these three cases.At the same time,the concept of relationship set is given in Space Fault Network(SFN),which is used to describe the relationship model of cause event-connection-result event and put all relationships of SFN in rela-tionship set.Then,the relationships in the relationship set are superimposed by evolution order to calculate the proba-bility distribution of the target event fault.The results show that the target event probability distribution of SFN changes only within a certain range of filterability transfer probability.At the same time,the difference between conti-nuity transfer probability and filterability transfer probability is compared and analyzed.
Safety system engineeringSpace fault networkSystem fault evolution processTransfer probabilityTarget event occurrence probability
万方数据
维普
