To study the relationships between events in the System Fault Evolution Process(SFEP),determine the possibility of the target event,and propose a calculation method of the probability distribution of the target event tak-ing into account the filterability transfer probability.The filterability transfer probability considers that only when the occurrence probability of the cause event is greater than the transfer probability can the result event occur.Three data forms are given,and three methods of calculating the probability distribution of the target event fault are proposed for these three cases.At the same time,the concept of relationship set is given in Space Fault Network(SFN),which is used to describe the relationship model of cause event-connection-result event and put all relationships of SFN in rela-tionship set.Then,the relationships in the relationship set are superimposed by evolution order to calculate the proba-bility distribution of the target event fault.The results show that the target event probability distribution of SFN changes only within a certain range of filterability transfer probability.At the same time,the difference between conti-nuity transfer probability and filterability transfer probability is compared and analyzed.
关键词
安全系统工程/空间故障网络/系统故障演化过程/传递概率/最终事件发生概率
Key words
Safety system engineering/Space fault network/System fault evolution process/Transfer probability/Target event occurrence probability
维普
万方数据