Prediction of Central Heating Area and Incremental Coal Consumption in Shandong Province
By comprehensively considering pa-rameters such as urban and rural structure,GDP,popu-lation,and urbanization rate,a central heating area pre-diction model is established to conduct prediction re-search on the central heating area and the increase in central heating coal consumption during the heating pe-riod in Shandong Province.In 2032,the central heat-ing area of Shandong Province will have an inflection point,and the energy consumption of building heating will peak.At the end of the"16th Five-Year Plan",the coal consumption for centralized heating in Shan-dong Province will show a negative growth,30.40 x 104 t lower than that at the end of the"15th Five-Year Plan".
central heating areaincremental coal consumptionpredictioneconomic levelpopula-tion numberurbanization rate