Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Leakage Port Size of Gas Pipeline in Utility Tunnel
In order to solve the lack of failure data support in the safety research of gas pipeline transportation in utility tunnel,based on the character-istics of overhead laying of gas pipeline in utility tun-nel,156 sets of failure data for different types of over-head pipelines were collected,and the distribution of pipeline leakage port size was statistically analyzed.A BP neural network prediction model was established to predict the length of slit-shaped leakage port in gas pipeline within utility tunnel,which effectively solved the problem of high randomness and dificulty in predicting the size of pipeline leakage ports.The results show that the slit-shaped leakage port is the main failure mode in overhead pipelines,the size of the slit-shaped leakage ports is mostly distribu-ted in the range of 0-1 000 mm,and the proportion of the number of slit-shaped leakage ports with different lengths shows an exponential distribution trend as a whole.With the increase of service life,the small-sized leakage port can develop and expand to the large-sized leakage port.The peak period for the development of small-sized leakage port,ranging from 0 to 30 mm in length,is 15 to 20 years.Overall,the proportion of the number of slit-shaped leakage ports with a length grea-ter than or equal to 150 mm increases with the increase of pipe diameter.When the relative bearing pressure capacity is at between 1.2 and 1.6,the proportion of the number of slit-shaped leakage ports with a length greater than or equal to 150 mm accounts for up to 40％,and the corresponding operating pressure range is relatively dangerous.The prediction model for the length of slit-shaped leakage port in gas pipeline within utility tunnel,constructed based on BP neural network,has high prediction accuracy.
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