Determination on compositions and proportions of inrushed mine water based on multivariate statistics and mixed model
To rapidly and effectively determine of mine inrush water sources,taking Yangcun Coal Mine as a research example,and based on the analysis of mine water filling source,56 study samples are selected in four major recharge aquifers,and 52 typical samples are retained after removing abnormal samples according to Piper's trilinear chart.Selection of six conventional ions as discriminators which are HCO3-、SO42-、Cl-、Na++K+、Mg2+and Ca2+,and Bayes stepwise discriminant analysis method in multivariate statistics is used to establish the discriminant model of mine water inrush source.The accuracy of Bayes discriminant model for the overall classification of samples reaches 91.06％.It lays a foundation for effective determination of the proportion of mixed water source composition.Afterwards,a mixing model is developed with the"M3"mass balance theory and the composition of the mine water influx is determined.The results indicate that:restricted by the characteristics and influence degree of the water-filled aquifer,the sandstone water content in the early mine water inrush composition is higher,specifically,the Ordovician limestone water accounts for 15.2％,the No.10lower limestone water accounts for 20.68％,No.3 coal roof sandstone water accounts for 48.28％,and No.13-14 limestone water accounts for 15.85％.With the passage of time,the proportion of No.13-14 limestone water and Ordovician limestone water gradually increase,among which Ordovician limestone water accounts for 23.65％,No.10lower limestone water accounts for 10.8％,No.3 coal roof sandstone water accounts for 26.73％,No.13-14 limestone water is 38.83％.This is consistent with the situation of No.3 coal in fifth recovery area in early mining stage,and lower formation coal group gradually mined in later stage,and indicates that the method is more in line with the actual production.On the whole,the Ordovician limestone water accounts for 17.5％,the No.10lower limestone water accounts for 19.86％,No.3 coal roof sandstone water accounts for 36.43％,and No.13-14 limestone water accounts for 26.21％.It shows that the current mine inrush water is mainly roof sandstone water in No.3 recovery area and No.13-14 limestone water in lower formation recovery area,which provides a basis for the future development of water control in the mine.
water inrush sourcesBayes modelmixed modelproportion determinationmass balance theory
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