基于系统动力学模型的沿海电厂燃煤采购策略研究
Coal procurement strategy for coastal power plants based on system dynamics model
李一凡 1王莹 1张敏 2王耀 1张健 1袁家海1
作者信息
- 1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京 102206
- 2. 中国华能集团有限公司规划发展部,北京 100031
- 折叠
摘要
煤电作为当前的主体电源,在电力安全供应中发挥着不可替代的作用.燃煤的充足可靠供应是煤电发挥兜底保障作用的前提,而燃煤采购成本是决定煤电企业经营效益的关键.进口煤是我国沿海电厂重要的燃料来源,其综合成本优势提高了企业盈利能力.然而近年来国际局势动荡引发能源价格剧烈波动,地缘冲突引发的运输中断增加了国际贸易风险,沿海电厂的燃煤采购面临极其复杂的环境.为了制定合理的燃煤采购策略,构建了考虑多种不确定性因素的燃煤采购系统动力学模型,结合我国沿海电厂燃煤采购现状,进行了仿真模拟,重点对比分析了政策因素、季节因素、低碳因素对于电厂进口煤采购比例及燃煤采购总成本的影响.结果表明,针对复杂的外部因素制定针对性的燃煤采购策略能够有效降低燃煤采购总成本和燃料供应风险;当前国际局势和电力低碳转型趋势下,增加澳大利亚煤炭进口量、考虑季节影响增减不同月份的进口量、优化进口煤结构并逐步减少进口煤比例是沿海电厂燃煤采购策略的合理选择.
Abstract
Coal-fired power generation plays a pivotal role in China's electricity supply today,and its unparalleled contribution to power supply security cannot be overstated.The reliable and sufficient supply of coal is a prerequisite for coal-fired power plants to fulfill their role,while the procurement cost of coal has a decisive impact on the economic performance of coal-fired power plants.Imported coal is an important fuel source for coastal power plants,as it offers a cost advantage that enhances the profitability of these plants.However,the volatile international situation in recent years has caused significant fluctuations in energy prices,and geopolitical conflicts have heightened the risks of international trade.This complex environment has made coal procurement for coastal power plants extremely challenging.To formulate effective coal procurement strategies,this study has constructed a system dynamics model that takes into account various uncertainties related to coal procurement.This model was then simulated in combination with the current coal procurement practices of coastal power plants in China.The simulations focused on analyzing the impact of various factors,including policies,seasons,and low-carbon considerations,on the proportion of imported coal and the total cost of coal procurement.The results of the simulations indicate that formulating targeted coal procurement strategies in response to complex external factors can effectively reduce the total cost of coal procurement and mitigate fuel supply risks.In light of current international circumstances and the trend towards low-carbon power generation,increasing the import of Australian coal,adjusting the import volume based on seasonal considerations,optimizing the import mix,and gradually reducing the proportion of imported coal are all viable strategies for coastal power plants'coal procurement.
关键词
沿海电厂/燃煤采购/系统动力学/成本控制/季节因素Key words
coastal power plants/coal procurement/system dynamics model/cost control/seasonal factors引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72173043)
教育部人文社会科学研究资助项目(22JHQ096)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据