基于投入产出模型的中国氢能产业宏观经济影响研究
A Study on themacroeconomic impact of China's hydrogen industry based on input-output model
李国敏 1刘小琴 2李玮 1马小龙3
作者信息
- 1. 太原理工大学经济管理学院,山西太原 030024;山西氢能开发与利用工程研究中心,山西晋中 030000
- 2. 太原理工大学经济管理学院,山西太原 030024
- 3. 山西鹏飞集团有限公司氢能事业部,山西吕梁 032399
- 折叠
摘要
运用投入产出模型,分析了中国氢能产业在GDP增长和温室气体排放方面直接和间接的宏观经济影响.首先编制氢能产业投入产出表,将氢能在交通、工业、建筑等领域的应用作为最终需求,将氢能产业制-储-运-加-用各环节的建设和运营作为中间投入;其次,结合碳排放卫星账户,从经济和排放2个角度分析宏观经济影响.结果表明,每万吨绿氢投资产生约1.26亿元的GDP,在运营阶段,平均每年的GDP贡献将近2000万元;绿氢带来的总碳排放仅为蓝氢和灰氢的约1/10,具有明显的减碳优势.所提方法可以推广到省域乃至城市尺度的研究中.
Abstract
This study utilizes an input-output model to analyze the direct and indirect macroeconomic impacts of China's hydrogen energy industry on GDP growth and greenhouse gas emissions.Firstly,the study establishes an input-output table for the hydrogen energy industry,with its applications in transportation,industry,construction,and other sectors as final demand and the construction,operation,and utilization stages of the hydrogen energy industry as intermediate inputs.Secondly,by combining carbon emission satellite accounts,the study analyzes the macroeconomic impacts from both economic and emissions perspectives.The results indicate that an investment of approximately 126 million yuan in green hydrogen production generates a GDP value of approximately 10,000 million yuan.During the operational phase,the average annual GDP contribution is close to 20 million yuan.Green hydrogen brings about only about one-tenth of the total carbon emissions compared to blue hydrogen and gray hydrogen,demonstrating significant decarbonization advantages.Finally,this research method can be applied to studies at the provincial and even city levels.
关键词
氢能产业/投入产出分析/宏观经济影响/系统边界/氢能需求情景/减碳优势Key words
hydrogen industry/input-output model/macroeconomic impact/system boundary/hydrogen demand scenario/carbon reduction advantages引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(72104172)
国家自然科学基金(72174137)
山西省哲学社会科学研究项目(2019W024)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据