数字技术对能源互联网综合效益的影响分析
Assessment the impact of digital technology on the comprehensive benefits of energy internet
张瑾 1吕帅2
作者信息
- 1. 中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京 100006;郑州大学3E研究中心,河南郑州 450001
- 2. 郑州大学3E研究中心,河南郑州 450001
- 折叠
摘要
量化分析数字化发展对能源互联网能源、环境、经济综合效益的影响具有重要理论和实践价值.基于产业链视角,采用系统动力学理论和方法,刻画数字技术投资在能源互联网产业上游能源生产、中游能源传输和下游能源消费中发挥的关键作用,识别数字技术投资及其他影响能源互联网效益的关键因素,厘清其反馈关系,并在此基础上构建包含能源生产商子系统、能源服务商子系统以及能源终端用户子系统的系统动力学模型,量化模拟不同类型数字技术投资比重变化下对能源互联网产业的经济、能源和环境效益的综合影响.仿真结果表明,数字技术投资在能源互联网综合效益提升中发挥关键作用;在高比例数字技术投入场景下,预计到2025年,数字技术每年为中国社会提供近72万就业岗位,清洁能源发电装机新增至17.6亿kW,可累计减少二氧化碳排放57亿t.提高数字技术投资比例可显著提高能源互联网综合效益,有力支持中国"十四五"规划的发展目标.
Abstract
The new generation of information and communication technology characterized by big data,5G and artificial intelligence has greatly promoted the digitalization process of the energy industry.Energy Internet is a new format produced by the deep combination of a new generation of digital technology and traditional energy industry.In 2016,the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of"Internet+"Smart Energy started the process of China's energy Internet construction.The investment in digital technology accounted for about 11％of the total investment in the power grid from 2009 to 2020,and the investment of State Grid in the field of new digital infrastructure in 2021 was as high as 24.7 billion yuan.However,it is not clear what contribution digital technology will make to the development of the energy Internet industry.In order to quantitative analyze of the impact of digitalization on the comprehensive benefits of the energy Internet,based on the perspective of industrial chain,this paper adopted the method of System Dynamics theory to describe the key role of digital technology investment in upstream energy production,midstream energy transmission and downstream energy consumption of the energy Internet industry.It quantified and simulated the comprehensive impact of different types of digital technology investment on the economic,energy and environmental benefits of the Energy Internet Industry.The results show that digital technology investment plays a key role in improving the comprehensive benefits of energy Internet.In scenarios with a high proportion of digital technology investment,digital technology can greatly increase the total installed capacity of clean energy,reduce carbon dioxide emissions,and strongly support China's carbon emission reduction strategy.Moreover,it is expected that by 2025,the increase in investment of digital technology will provide nearly 720,000 jobs per year for Chinese society,strongly supporting the development goals of China's 14th Five-Year Plan.
关键词
数字技术/系统动力学/能源互联网/综合效益/系统边界/投资比重/动力学模型/因果回路图Key words
digital technology/system dynamics energy internet/comprehensive impacts/system dynamics/system boundary/investment proportion/dynamical model/causal circuit diagram引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金(72204230)
国家资助博士后研究人员计划(GZC20233095)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据