摘要
新疆是我国第四大主力煤炭产区,疆煤外运量近年来快速增长,但运距远、运费高、运输能力受限是疆煤外运面临的突出问题.通过构建"煤价差-运费差"竞争力模型,以2011-2023年煤炭市场价格变动为参照,对照了在甘青、川渝、宁夏、华中、秦皇岛港等疆煤主要或潜在市场区域与晋陕蒙疆煤炭共同调入的局面下,疆煤外运分别相对于与晋陕蒙煤炭的经济竞争力,分析了疆煤分别相较于晋陕蒙煤源具备经济竞争力的煤炭市场价格边界,为疆煤外运的经济竞争性提供了 1种能够反映市场煤价变动的定量测算方法.在此基础上,提出了加强外运通道建设、服务沙戈荒大基地开发、加大掺烧技术改造等扩大疆煤利用市场的政策建议,为科学合理布局疆煤市场、更好发挥新疆煤炭在保障能源安全、加快构建现代能源体系中的作用提供决策参考.
Abstract
Xinjiang is the fourth largest coal producing area in China.In recent years,the export volume of Xinjiang coal has been increasing rapidly.The long transportation distance,high freight and limited transportation capacity,however,are the most outstanding problems in the export of Xinjiang coal.By constructing the competitiveness model of"coal price difference-freight difference",and taking the price change of coal market from 2011 to 2023 as a reference,this paper compares the economic competitiveness of Xinjiang coal transportation with that of Shanxi,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia coal for the main or potential market of Xinjiang coal such as Gansu and Qinghai,Sichuan and Chongqing,Ningxia,Central China,Qinhuangdao Port,under the situation of joint import of Shanxi,Shaanxi,Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang coal for these market.The coal market price boundaries of Xinjiang coal with economic competitiveness,compared with Shanxi,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia coal source,are analyzed,providing a quantitative calculation method,which reflects the change of market coal price,for the economic competitiveness of Xinjiang coal transportation.Based on this analysis,policy suggestions to expand the potential market of Xinjiang coal are offered as decision-making reference for scientific and reasonable layout of Xinjiang coal market,such as strengthening the construction of export transportation channel,serving the development of large energy base in gobi desert-wasteland,and increasing the technical transformation of mixed burning for thermal power generator,improving Xinjiang coal's role in ensuring energy security and accelerating the construction of modern energy system.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据