晋陕蒙地区碳排放驱动因素与脱钩效应研究
Study on driving factors of carbon emissions and decoupling effect in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region
齐璇璇 1黄庆 1黄蕊2
作者信息
- 1. 南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,江苏南京 210023
- 2. 南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,江苏南京 210023;江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏南京 210023
- 折叠
摘要
高质量建设国家重要能源基地对实现碳达峰碳中和目标、推动经济高质量发展、实现中国式现代化具有重要战略意义.根据1995-2020年长时间序列的能源消费和社会经济数据,对晋陕蒙地区CO2排放进行了核算,结合对数均值Divisia指数(LMDI)模型探究晋陕蒙地区不同时期CO2排放的驱动因素,采用二维脱钩模型分析晋陕蒙地区CO2排放和经济增长的脱钩关系,并对"十四五"时期晋陕蒙地区的脱钩指数进行了预测.结果显示1995-2020年期间,晋陕蒙地区CO2排放总量以年均6.6％的速度增长.经济发展和人口规模对CO2排放起促进作用,能源强度对CO2排放起抑制作用,而能源结构对CO2排放的影响相对较小.晋陕蒙地区的CO2排放和经济发展在不同时期呈现出不同脱钩状态,其中以弱脱钩-经济低水平增长为主.研究结果可为晋陕蒙地区制定节能减排措施和高质量发展政策提供科学支撑.
Abstract
High-quality construction of national important energy bases is of great strategic significance to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,to promote high-quality economic development,and to realize Chinese-style modernization.In this study,based on the long time series of energy consumption and socio-economic data from 1995 to 2020,CO2 emissions in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region are calculated.The driving factors of CO2 emissions in different periods are investigated with the LMDI model.Two-dimensional decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region,and the decoupling index is predicted for the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The results show that during the period of 1995-2020,the total CO2 emission in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region increased at an average annual rate of 6.6％.Economic development and population size contribute to the growth of CO2 emissions in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region,while energy intensity plays an inhibiting role on CO2 emissions.Energy structure has a relatively small effect on CO2 emissions of Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region.CO2 emissions and economic development in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region show different decoupling states in different periods,with weak decoupling and low-level economic growth as the dominant state.The findings can provide scientific support for the formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction measures and high-quality development policies in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region.
关键词
碳排放/驱动因素/对数均值Divisia指数/脱钩效应/趋势预测/晋陕蒙地区Key words
carbon emmission/driving factor/LMDI/decoupling effect/trend prediction/Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFA0608601)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42230406)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41701615)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据