煤炭和房地产与中国经济周期的关系研究
Research on the relationship between the coal industry,the real estate industry and the China's economic cycle
王睿1
作者信息
- 1. 国家能源集团煤炭经营分公司,北京 100011
- 折叠
摘要
通过对2011年和2021年两次经济周期见顶的比较,选择2013年5月至2023年4月的10年数据作为研究标的,建立关于文华商品指数、钢铁板块指数、煤炭板块指数的VAR模型,得到结论如下:①文华商品指数、钢铁板块指数、煤炭板块指数存在长期均衡关系;②文华商品指数和钢铁板块指数、煤炭板块指数互为格兰杰(Granger)因果关系,但钢铁板块指数和煤炭板块指数不互为格兰杰因果关系.通过分析得出:金融属性强的房地产行业在深度上影响中国经济,金融属性弱的煤炭行业在广度上影响中国经济,都会随中国经济而波动;中国经济见顶时,房地产行业和煤炭行业见顶时间有先后,呈现前后双顶形态;中国经济见底时,房地产行业和煤炭行业同步见底,与行业属性差异无关.同时,做出2个预判:2021年开始的系统性衰退至少要延续到2026年第2～3季度;中国房地产行业的库兹涅茨周期在2021年见顶结束.最后,提出要走技术创新道路,才能在2026年第2～3季度中国经济见底后,避免漫长的L型复苏.
Abstract
By comparing the two economic cycle peaks in 2011 and 2021,this paper selects the 10-year data from May 2013 to April 2023 as the research object,and establishes a VAR model for Wenhua Commodity Index,Steel Sector Index,and Coal Sector Index.The conclusions are as follows:① There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among Wenhua Commodity Index,Steel Sector Index,and Coal Sector Index.② Wenhua Commodity Index and Steel Sector Index,Coal Sector Index are mutually Granger causality,but Steel Sector Index and Coal Sector Index are not mutually Granger causality.This paper analyzes the following points:the real estate industry with strong financial attributes has a deep impact on the Chinese economy,while the coal industry with weak financial attributes has a wide impact on the Chinese economy,both of which will fluctuate with the Chinese economy;When the Chinese economy peaks,the real estate industry and the coal industry also peak in a sequential manner,presenting a double peaked pattern before and after;When the Chinese economy bottoms out,the real estate industry and the coal industry simultaneously bottom out,regardless of differences in industry attributes.At the same time,this paper makes two predictions:the systemic recession starting from 2021 will continue until at least the second to third quarters of 2026;The Kuznets cycle of China's real estate industry peaked and ended in 2021.Finally,this paper proposes to take the path of technological innovation in order to avoid a long L-shaped recovery after the Chinese economy bottoms out in the second to third quarters of 2026.
关键词
煤炭/房地产/能源/经济周期/VAR模型/技术创新/L型复苏Key words
coal/real estate/energy/economic cycle/VAR model/technological innovation/L-shaped resuscitation引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据