沿黄九省3E系统的耦合协调度评价研究
Study on the evaluation ofcoupling coordination degree of 3E system of nine provinces along the Yellow River
焦文婷 1翟润楠 1薛红 2谢佳莹 3吴海滨4
作者信息
- 1. 山西大学经济与管理学院,山西太原 030031
- 2. 交城经济开发区管理委员会,山西吕梁 030599
- 3. 中北大学经济与管理学院,山西太原 030051
- 4. 山西大学资源与环境工程研究所,山西太原 030031
- 折叠
摘要
沿黄九省环境、能源和经济系统之间的协调发展是实现黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的必要条件.基于减污降碳增效、煤炭依赖程度、经济科技水平构建了黄河流域环境—能源—经济(3E)耦合协调综合评价指标体系,利用熵值法、耦合协调模型、Kernel密度估计、灰色关联度模型和灰色预测模型对黄河流域各省区3E系统的耦合协调度进行分析.结果表明:从时空变化趋势来看,各子系统整体增势向好,东强西弱明显.流域整体耦合协调水平尚处于中级协调阶段,地区差异较大,全流域整体耦合协调水平始终保持向好发展.流域整体耦合协调度的主要影响因素是能源子系统.根据预测,黄河流域3E系统的耦合协调度将于2028年达到优质协调,并于2033年达到最高值.针对上述结果,认为推动黄河流域高质量发展应重点关注西部上游省份,以优化能源结构降低能耗强度为统领,继续推进流域去煤化进程,以经济发展和科技投入为基础,重点关注人民生活水平,提升流域经济竞争力,以政府治理为手段,保持现有减污降碳政策前提下推动资源节约和循环利用,优化流域环境.
Abstract
The coordination of environment,energy and economy in nine provinces along the Yellow River Basin is necessary for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.Focusing on pollution reduction,carbon reduction and efficiency improvement,coal dependence,and economic and technological level,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of coupled environment-energy-economy(3E)coordination in the Yellow River Basin.Entropy method,coupled coordination model,Kernel density estimation,grey correlation degree model and grey prediction model are used to analyze the coupled coordination degree of the 3E systems in the provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin.The results demonstrate that the general growth trend of each subsystem is positive,with the east strong and the west weak.The basin's overall coupling coordination level is still in the intermediate coordination stage,with significant regional differences,and the overall coupling coordination level of the entire basin has consistently improved.The energy subsystem has the greatest influence on the overall coupling coordination degree.It is predicted that the coupling coordination degree of the 3E system in the Yellow River Basin will reach high-quality coordination in 2028 and the highest value in 2033.In view of the above results,it is believed that the promotion of high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin should focus on the western upstream provinces,optimize the energy structure and reduce energy intensity as the lead,continue the process of coal removal in the basin,improve the economic competitiveness of the basin on the basis of economic development and scientific and technological investment,focus on people's living standards,and take government governance as the means.Promote resource conservation and recycling to optimize the basin environment under the premise of maintaining the existing pollution reduction and carbon reduction policies.
关键词
黄河流域/环境—能源—经济系统/耦合协调/时空演变/影响因素Key words
Yellow River basin/environment-energy-economy system/coupling coordination/space-time evolution/influencing factor引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据