Objective To analyze the disease burden and breast cancer trends in rural China from 2005-2016 and to provide basic data and the basis for the prevention and treatment of breast cancer policy in ru-ral China.Methods The crude and age-standardized breast cancer incidences were calculated based on the breast cancer incidence in rural areas of China from 2005-2016.The annual percentage change(APC)was used to determine the temporal trends in the breast cancer incidence.Join point regression was used to fit the model and analyze the incidence among all ages.The Grey model was used to predict the short-term burden of breast cancer in rural females in China.Results The total number of breast cancer cases in ru-ral China between 2005 and 2016 was 138 347.The crude incidence rate increased from 15.43/100 000 in 2005 to 34.79/100 000 in 2016(APC=1.88,P<0.01).The age-standardized incidence rate of the Chinese population increased from 1.28/100 000 in 2005 to 2.50/100 000 in 2016(APC=1.67,P<0.01).The inci-dence of breast cancer among females in rural areas started to increase after 30 years of age and peaked in females 45-60 years of age.The Grey system forecasting model prediction showed that the crude incidence of breast cancer continues to rise and it is expected that,by 2021,the breast cancer incidence among fe-males in rural areas of China will reach 51.19/100 000,including 260 962 new cases.Conclusions Breast cancer incidence among females in rural areas of China is on the rise,and measures related to breast cancer prevention and treatment in rural areas should be actively formulated,refined,and strengthened.
关键词
女性/农村/乳腺癌/发病率/灰色系统预测模型
Key words
Females/Rural/Breast cancer/Morbidity/Grey system forecasting model
维普
万方数据