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基于灰色预测模型的大学生体质动态预测

Research on Dynamic Prediction of College Students'Physical Fitness Based on GM Model

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当前,大学生的体质健康水平有下降的趋势,体育锻炼意识也不强.灰色预测模型适合研究某个样本量较小、已知信息较为贫乏的系统,并从中发现其发展规律,因此可以利用该模型对宁波幼儿师范高等专科学校学生体质健康测试成绩发展趋势进行预测.所建立的预测模型与预测结果具有良好的精准度、科学性和实用性,预测结果可作为进一步优化体育课程的依据,也可为学校体育工作发展提供参考,用于学生多维评价体系的构建.
With the expansion of higher vocational colleges,students'physical health level and extracurricular physical exercise awareness differ.In order to improve the physical fitness of college students,the development trend of students'physical health test performance of Ningbo Preschool Normal College is predicted according to the grey theory GM(1,1)model.The prediction model and prediction results have high accuracy,strong science and high practicability;the prediction results can be used for further optimization of physical education curriculum,and the research results can provide reference for the development of school physical education for the construction of multi-dimensional evaluation system for students.

GM(1,1)physical fitness testpredictiondevelopment

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宁波幼儿师范高等专科学校 贤江艺术与体育学院,浙江 宁波 315336

灰色预测模型 体质健康测试 预测 发展

2024

宁波教育学院学报
宁波教育学院

宁波教育学院学报

影响因子:0.217
ISSN:1009-2560
年,卷(期):2024.26(5)