Keeping the pork price in a reasonable range is crucial for hog production and consumption.In order to predict future hog farmgate prices and promote the return of hog prices to a reasonable range,this paper uses the ARI-MA model to predict the change of hog farmgate prices in Shandong Province from March to December 2024 based on the hog farmgate prices from November 2012 to February 2024 in Shandong Province.The results show that the model fits well and accurately predicts the short-term fluctuation of pig farmgate prices in Shandong Province,and it is ex-pected that the pig farmgate prices in Shandong Province in March-December 2024 may increase slightly.The govern-ment should take measures to optimize the hog production capacity control mechanism and promote the development of the hog industry by regulating the breeding sows to protect the bottom line,improving the price monitoring and early warning system,strengthening the price risk management tools,optimizing the management of hog inventories,control-ling the cost of hog production,implementing the policy of hog subsidies,and broadening the hog trade.
关键词
生猪出场价格/ARIMA模型/预测/山东省
Key words
Hog farmgate price/ARIMA model/Forecast/Shandong Province
维普
万方数据