堤防工程汛期实时安全风险综合评估
Real-time safety risk comprehensive assessment of embankment engineering during flood season
万怡国 1雷声 2王萱子 1张磊 1张洁 1涂宜昌1
作者信息
- 1. 江西省水利科学院,江西 南昌 330029;江西省鄱阳湖流域生态水利技术创新中心,江西 南昌 330029
- 2. 江西省水利厅,江西 南昌 330029
- 折叠
摘要
在出现洪涝灾害时,第一时间发现并及时处置险情是应急抢险的关键,如何提前配置防汛人力、物力等,一直是防汛指挥部门亟待解决的问题.为实时掌握堤防工程安全风险情况,结合一线防汛抢险实践经验,提出了一套数量适宜、指标内容易获取的堤防工程安全风险评价指标体系,采用层次分析法、模糊综合评价法建立了评估模型,给定了评估标准,划分了堤防工程风险等级,并选取了 2020 年江西省遭受特大洪水引起的堤防险情进行典型案例分析.结果表明:选取的未溃口与发生溃口的堤防,其安全风险综合评估情况与堤防后续状况吻合性较好,堤防工程安全风险综合评估模型可为防汛指挥部门部署人力、物力等提供支撑.
Abstract
The key to emergency rescue is to detect and promptly deal with dangerous situations in the event of flood disasters.How to allocate flood control manpower and material resources in advance has always been an urgent problem that flood control command departments need to solve.In order to grasp the safety risk situation of embankment engineering in real time,this study combined the practical experience of frontline flood control and rescue,proposed a set of appropriate quantity and easily obtainable index system for evaluating the safety risk of embankment engineering.The analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to establish an evaluation model,provided evaluation standards,and divided the risk level of embankment engineering,And typical case studies were selected to analyze the embankment risks caused by the catastrophic floods in Jiangxi Province in 2020.The results showed that the evaluation model was in good agreement with the practice,which can provide basis for emergency rescue in flood season,and provide support for allocating human and material resources for disaster relief.
关键词
堤防工程/汛期/实时/安全风险/综合评估Key words
embankment engineering/flood season/real time/security risk/comprehensive evaluation引用本文复制引用
基金项目
水利部重大科技资助项目(SKS-2022010)
应急管理部防汛抗旱司资助项目(2021-防汛抗旱司-02)
江西省水利厅重大科技资助项目(202124ZDKT30)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据