Sensitivity of influence factors on levee danger in Poyang Lake area
In order to solve the problem of predicting and forecasting levee danger in Poyang Lake area and formulating flood control counter measures,the influence law of levee danger influencing factors(warning water level duration days,water level difference inside and outside the levee,water level rise and fall amplitude,flood prevention standard,slope ratio of headwater slope,slope ratio of backwater slope)on the number of levee danger was quantitatively analyze combined with the certainty factor method based on the data of levee danger in Poyang Lake area in 2020.The results showed that the effect of each influencing factor on levee danger had non-linear characteristics,and there were obvious differences in the effect of influencing factors on levee danger in different zones.Duration of warning water level within 6-10 days,relative value of water level difference inside and outside the levee was more than 0.80,water level rise and fall was more than 0.63 m,flood control standard of one in 10 years,slope ratio of 1∶2.0 for the headwater slope,slope ratio of 1∶2.0 for the backwater slope were the significant sensitive interval of each influencing factor.The duration of warning water level,the relative value of water level difference inside and outside the levee,and the amplitude of water level rise and fall were the main controlling factors of levee danger in Poyang Lake area,and the flood control standard,headwater slope ratio and backwater slope ratio had low sensitivity to levee danger.
levee dangerPoyang Lake areacertainty factorsensitivity analysis
万方数据
维普
