摘要
为解决堤防险情的预测预报以及防汛对策的制定问题,基于2020年鄱阳湖区堤防险情数据,结合确定性系数法,定量分析堤防险情影响因素(警戒水位持续天数、堤内外水位差相对值、水位涨落幅度、防洪标准、迎水坡坡比、背水坡坡比)对堤防险情数量的影响规律.结果表明:各影响因素对堤防险情的作用具有非线性特征,不同区间的影响因素对堤防险情的作用存在明显差异,警戒水位持续时间6～10d、堤内外水位差相对值＞0.80、水位涨落幅度＞0.63 m、防洪标准10年一遇、迎水坡坡比1∶2.0、背水坡坡比1∶2.0为各影响因素的显著敏感区间;警戒水位持续时间、堤内外水位差相对值、水位涨落幅度是鄱阳湖区堤防险情的主要控制因素,防洪标准、迎水坡坡比、背水坡坡比对堤防险情具有较低的敏感性.
Abstract
In order to solve the problem of predicting and forecasting levee danger in Poyang Lake area and formulating flood control counter measures,the influence law of levee danger influencing factors(warning water level duration days,water level difference inside and outside the levee,water level rise and fall amplitude,flood prevention standard,slope ratio of headwater slope,slope ratio of backwater slope)on the number of levee danger was quantitatively analyze combined with the certainty factor method based on the data of levee danger in Poyang Lake area in 2020.The results showed that the effect of each influencing factor on levee danger had non-linear characteristics,and there were obvious differences in the effect of influencing factors on levee danger in different zones.Duration of warning water level within 6-10 days,relative value of water level difference inside and outside the levee was more than 0.80,water level rise and fall was more than 0.63 m,flood control standard of one in 10 years,slope ratio of 1∶2.0 for the headwater slope,slope ratio of 1∶2.0 for the backwater slope were the significant sensitive interval of each influencing factor.The duration of warning water level,the relative value of water level difference inside and outside the levee,and the amplitude of water level rise and fall were the main controlling factors of levee danger in Poyang Lake area,and the flood control standard,headwater slope ratio and backwater slope ratio had low sensitivity to levee danger.
维普
万方数据