Analysis of wind power fluctuation characteristics based on hybrid adaptive kernel density estimation
The analysis and mastery of the inner law of the fluctuation characteristics of wind power output is conducive to improving the prediction accuracy of wind power output,thus guiding the power grid scheduling department to reasonably arrange the power generation plan and improve the economy of system operation.To characterize the probability density distribution of wind power output fluctuations,two adaptive bandwidth kernel density estimation models are developed by modifying the fixed bandwidths obtained from the empirical method and the unbiased cross-validation method.Then,the above two models are combined and optimized,and finally the probability density distribution model of wind power output fluctuation based on hybrid adaptive kernel density estimation(HAKDE)is established.A variety of probability density distribution models were used to fit the fluctuations of wind power output at different spatial and temporal scales in a province in North China.The results show that the fitting effect of the HAKDE model is the best,which verifies the effectiveness of the HAKDE model.
kernel density estimationwind powerfluctuation characteristicsprobability density distributionmulti-temporal scales
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
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