Regulation Orientation Measurement,Exogenous Components Identification and"Stabilizing Expectation"effect of Monetary Policy:Empirical Evidence from Quantitative Intermediary Indicators
Firstly,this paper gives the empirical fact that M2 may have endogenous components from the perspective of"coun-ter cycle",and uses the endogenous component elimination idea to measure the change index of monetary policy regulation orientation,focusing on its fitting effect and guiding effect on the Monetary Policy Implementation Report.Furthermore,this paper quantitatively identifies the exogenous components of M2 of monetary policy and uses the tool variable local projection method to analyze the"stabilizing expectation"effect of monetary policy and the policy spatial heterogeneity characteristic.The results show that:first,there is a strong correlation trend between M2 and economic fundamental variables,and M2 con-tains the information of economic fundamental variables.Second,the time-varying characteristics and dynamic attributes of the change index of monetary policy regulation orientation are obvious.Except for a few time points,it has a good fitting effect and guidance effect on the monetary policy regulation orientation in the Monetary Policy Implementation Report,and can ac-curately identify the instantaneous sudden change time point and micro change process of the monetary policy regulation ori-entation.Third,monetary policy has the effect of"stabilizing expectations".The"hunger effect"and"hangover effect"of monetary policy are different in different policy spaces.In the period of sufficient policy space,the short-term effect of mone-tary policy is obvious.Due to the short-term attribute of confidence and the adverse selection psychology of behavioral sub-jects,the monetary policy in the period of insufficient policy space may have long-term effect but unstable.
Monetary PolicyRegulatory OrientationExogenous ComponentPolicy Space