Research on Resilience Assessment and Risk Transmission in International Trade Supply Chains:International Perspective Based on Major Contingency Shocks
The frequent occurrence of major emergencies has made the issue of international trade supply chain security an important topic of concern for governments.Based on the international perspective under the impact of major emergencies,the full text uses the CoDEA model to evaluate the initial nodes,sub chains,and overall chain resilience of the supply chain step by step.The article uses the social network analysis method to further explore the role and function of each node economy in risk transmission.The results show that:(1)The main impact links of major emergencies are in the upstream and midstream of the international trade supply chain,and the compensation effect of downstream nodes on overall resilience is limited and costly;(2)Risk transmission and risk resistance are not synchronized.Under the impact of this pandemic,economies with strong risk transmission influence usually do not have strong supply chain resilience,while China's strong risk resilience plays a positive role in strengthening the resilience of international supply chain networks;(3)Economies have attempted to avoid shocks through marginalization due to risk aversion,but have not produced substantial risk aversion effects;(4)Com-pared to the main beneficiary sector and the broker sector,the risk transmission relationship this time is dominated by the spillover sector.Excessive spillovers promote the cross iterative propagation of risks,exacerbating the impact of emergencies on the international trade supply chain.Based on this,we draw policy implications for improving the resilience of interna-tional trade supply chains and preventing risks.
Major Contingency ShocksInternational Trade Supply ChainResilience AssessmentRisk Transmission
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