Research on Controlling the Increment of Local Government Implicit Debt Path Optimization
Controlling the increment of local government implicit debt is a important aspect of resolving local government debt risks and overall development and security.Although the new Budget Law allowed local governments to issue bonds openly af-ter 2015,large amounts of borrowing by local governments through financing vehicles outside the limit are still difficult to con-trol.According to IMF estimates,the total debt of China's local financing platforms is expected to reach 65.7 trillion yuan in 2023.Preventing and controlling local government debt risks and holding the bottom line of no systemic risks have become an important topic in the reports of the 19th and 20th National Congresses of the Party.The Central Financial Work Conference held on October 30-31,2023 further proposed:"Establish a long-term mechanism to prevent and defuse local debt risks."To achieve this goal,we need to accurately identify the institutional causes of the growing scale of local government debt,treat the causes and find solutions to the root causes.The article selects 511 counties and districts across the country with a record of issuing bonds from 2002 to 2019 as research objects,including 53 counties and districts classified as national key ecologi-cal functional zones and 113 counties and districts receiving ecological compensation.A total of 398 samples that have not re-ceived ecological compensation,including 28 counties and districts classified as national key ecological functional zones,were selected to set up ecological compensation research groups,and a total of 458 samples that have not been classified as national key ecological functional zones,including 88 counties and districts received ecological compensation,were selected to set up ecological compensation research groups.The ecological functional zone research group and the ecological compen-sation research group respectively take the national key ecological functional zone system(burden reduction)and the ecologi-cal compensation system(compensation)as two different policy impacts.Through the PSM-DID method,empirical research is conducted on the impact of load reduction and compensation on controlling the expansion of local government debt.Re-search has found that the national key ecological functional zone system significantly reduces the debt scales of ecological counties,while the ecological compensation system has the opposite effect.After multiple robustness tests,the conclusion re-mains unchanged.Mechanism analysis indicated that the difference in effectiveness between the two paths is related to the in-centive effect on infrastructure investment.The national key ecological functional zone system reduces the level of infrastruc-ture investment,while the ecological compensation system increases the level of infrastructure investment.Heterogeneity analysis found that the impact of key ecological functional zone systems on the scale of local government debt is more pro-nounced in counties with developed industries and county-level city;The impact of the ecological compensation system on the scale of local government debt is more pronounced in ordinary counties,but has no significant relationship with the level of industrial development.The research in this article has strong policy implications for establishing long-term mechanism to resolve local government debt risks and promoting the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature.
Local Government DebtVertical Fiscal ImbalanceTransfer PaymentEcological CompensationNational Key Ecological Function Zone
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
