Analyzing the Global Economic Outlook through Technological Innovation:Based on the Long Cycle Perspective
Technological innovation stands as the fundamental means to expand high-quality demand and the key force driv-ing the initiation of Kondratiev long waves.Economic operations exhibit cyclical fluctuations,which can be categorized into short cycles,medium cycles,and long cycles based on their duration.Short cycles are primarily influenced by supply and de-mand,while long cycles rely on innovation-driven growth.In recent years,the industrialization of new technologies is result-ing in a new generation of revolutionary breakthroughs.And the global has witnessed numerous revolutionary technological achievements,giving rise to emerging consumer goods such as Starlink,space tourism,artificial intelligence,and humanoid intelligent robots.These innovations not only meet the growing demand for more advanced and intelligent products but also serve as a crucial engine propelling sustained prosperity in world's economy.Particularly notable is the excellence demon-strated by some countries in areas like Starlink systems,artificial intelligence,space industry,and quantum computing,show-casing remarkable technological prowess that provides robust support for the future development of the economy.Although the global economy faces downward pressure in the short term,it will gradually enter a new long cycle in the long run.From the viewpoint of long-term economic cycles,sustained economic growth is predominantly driven by technological innovation.With the development of technologies like artificial intelligence,the global economy may be on the brink of entering a new phase of growth.According to the long wave theory,the current global economy is likely in the depression phase of the fifth Kondratiev wave.Historically,economic cycles'troughs often herald the beginning of the next cycle.At present,product inno-vation and process innovation have pushed the economies of some countries into a new long cycle.China has made significant strides in fields such as new energy technologies,artificial intelligence,and quantum computing.This paper introduces innovation and innovation-support policies to address the limitations of Keynesian economics.Within the theoretical framework of technological innovation and long cycles,it examines the global economic landscape,with a specific focus on analyzing product and process innovation.Additionally,it evaluates groundbreaking developments that could potentially usher in new economic cycles in the future.The goal is to furnish empirical evidence for attaining stable and enduring economic growth,while enhancing comprehension and mastery of the principles and trajectories of innovation-led economic expansion.Consequently,this aids in crafting scientifically sound policies and strategies,underscoring their practi-cal relevance.The following policy insights has been yielded:It is essential to rely on technological innovation,especially disruptive and original innovations.This involves focusing on new manufacturing,new services,and new business models to create new drivers and new advantages for China's economic growth.Accelerating the cultivation of new quality productive forces is cru-cial for achieving stable and sustained economic growth in the new cycle.Only by seizing the opportunities of a new round of scientific and technological revolution can it be possible to achieve a new round of stable and sustained economic growth.
High-Quality DevelopmentGlobal EconomyEconomic Long CircleTechnological InnovationNew Quality Pro-ductive Forces
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