A Thorough Grasp of the Emerging Features and Paradigms in Industrial Transfer:Based on the Facts and Analysis from an Open Perspective
Currently,the global industrial chain is undergoing an accelerated restructuring and adjustment towards localiza-tion,regionalization,diversification,greening,and digitization.Against this backdrop,countries such as the United States and European countries have introduced a series of policies and measures to expedite the shift of industries,which directly im-pacts the security and stability of China's industrial and supply chains.This paper employs multiple databases,including fDi Markets and UN Comtrade,to conduct an in-depth analysis of the current state of industrial transfer in China from the per-spectives of FDI,OFDI and intermediate goods trade.We identify four typical patterns of industry relocation and propose tar-geted strategic measures based on a"categorized assessment".The study finds that:First,in terms of the FDI,there has not yet been a massive scale of industrial transfer from China.European countries,including France,have taken the lead in in-creasing investments in China.However,there is a need to be vigilant about the decline in foreign investments from countries like the USA,Japan,and Republic of Korea,especially in industries with longer supply chains such as electronic components,semiconductors,and automotive equipments.Second,in terms of the OFDI,there is a general trend of steady increase,with particularly strong growth in investments in Mexico and countries along the"Belt and Road"initiative.Investments in high-end manufacturing industries such as electronic components,metal products,automotive equipments,as well as mineral re-sources have also shown a consistently positive trend.Third,in the trade of intermediate goods,China's exports have signifi-cantly increased in terms of the global share in recent years,with notably increased export ratios to regions such as Vietnam,India,and Thailand,and a marked rise in the exports of high-tech products.On this basis,the paper further identifies four main patterns of industrial transfer:geopolitical-driven,production cost-driven,supply chain layout-driven,and interna-tional cooperation-driven.Lastly,based on the different patterns of industrial transfer and the new characteristics of the cur-rent shifts,we propose relevant strategic recommendations to ensure the resilience and security of China's industrial and sup-ply chains.
Industrial TransferForeign Direct InvestmentOutward Foreign Direct InvestmentIntermediate Goods TradeSupply Chain Security
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