The Evolution and Mechanism Formation of World Value-Added Trade Network:Based on Complex Network Analysis Method
The division of labor in GVCs has changed the paradigm of world production,and has had a profound impact on the system of world trade networks and the status of countries'trade networks.Different from aggregate trade,DVA mainly rede-fines import and export of value added from the demand side,emphasizing that net value added can overcome the problem of"double-counting"in traditional trade statistics,so as to objectively reveal the trade benefits gained by countries participating in the international division of labor.In the GVC network,the scale of DVA trade can reflect a country's participation in the international division of labor and product production,such as research and development,input factors,processing and manu-facturing,distribution and after-sales service and many other aspects of the degree of division of labor and division of labor status,and the level of the status of the division of labor is directly a country's value-added capacity,the level of competitive advantage,and even the size of the right to formulate rules of international trade and commerce and the size of the right to speak.Examining the evolutionary characteristics of the world's DVA trade network and exploring the formation mechanism behind it are of great significance in revealing the distribution pattern of international trade networks,grasping the trend of the evolution of global economic and trade patterns,and promoting the governance strategy of the new round of global eco-nomic and trade rules.Based on UNCTAD-Eora value-added trade data,this paper evaluates the evolutionary characteristics of the world domestic value-added trade network from 2003 to 2021 by using the CNA method.The results show that:the world DVA trade network has been expanding,becoming more and more closely connected and regionalized,and the degree of integration has deepened,and a"multi-dimensional"network has been formed with Ger-many,the United States and China as the center and the"bridge",and the"multi-faceted"network has been formed,as well as five cohesive subgroups of associations with obvious differences in the sparseness of connections but relatively stable struc-tures;The trade network status gap between"Belt and Road"and non-"Belt and Road"countries tends to fluctuate and nar-row.Further network simulation using the TERGM model finds that relationship preference connectivity effect,ternary trans-mission closure effect,countries'GDP,institutional quality,tariff level,trade facilitation level,common borders,RTA net-work and religious beliefs relationship network are the determinants of the formation of the world's DVA trade network,and that the positive impacts of the factors not only differ significantly in different regions and stages.It also increases with the sta-tus of a country's trade network.
Domestic Trade in Value-AddedComplex Network AnalysisTime-varying Exponential Random Graph ModelBelt&Road
万方数据
