Spatial Patterns of Commercial Stability in the Context of Retail Shrinkage:A Case Study based on the Qianmen Area in Beijing
In recent years,the development of e-commerce in China has exerted pressures on traditional businesses,and the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a decline in the number of urban shops in the short term.In this context,studying influencing factors of commercial stability during the decline process has significant practical value to predict the commercial potential of various streets in urban renewal,to promptly adjust the functional positioning and land use of streets,and to achieve refined spatial governance.Existing theories on commercial space distribution suggest that location characteristics,street topology reflecting traffic levels,and the local aggregation intensity of various businesses can influence business distribution and operation at different scales.It is easy for businesses in areas with convenient transportation,high accessibility,or dense surrounding businesses to achieve stable profits.As such,a case study based on the Qianmen area in Beijing was carried out.The renaming,alteration,and survival of shops in the Qianmen area of Beijing from 2017 to 2022 were recorded in detail using the Baidu Street View Time Machine and field surveys.Moreover,quantitative indicators for the evaluation of commercial stability were established,and the comprehensive influences of location,traffic,and aggregation factors on commercial stability at a street level were analyzed using a spatial syntax model.The core issue was to explore whether logic of distance,topology,or aggregation played a leading role in explaining overall business changes,and to further test the similarities and differences of such influences on urban business and community business.The results showed that commercial stability had a high correlation with large-scale topological accessibility.Based on a literature review,business distribution is mostly affected by small-scale topological accessibility.The comprehensive influences of topological spatial structure on business distribution can be summarized as"distribution determined by local structure and changes determined by global structure".In other words,analysis results of the local topological morphology guided the number of shops seen in each street within range,while analysis results of the overall topological morphology of the city guided business survival stability on each street.A comparison of the influences of distance,topology,and aggregation concluded that topological accessibility was very significant in analyzing disappearance and variation of overall businesses,community businesses,and city businesses,while business aggregation only affected the analysis of city business stability and the disappearance of overall businesses.The impact of proximity to public transport stops was unstable,only showing some impact on the stability of community businesses.This further explains that topological logic can effectively analyze the static distribution state of businesses,and effectively explain the associated dynamic change trends.Although the impact of the pandemic was temporary,the transformation of shopping patterns caused by further development of e-commerce,as well as other factors like dispersed urban functions,may cause retail decline in specific areas and cities in the future.This may affect the reduction of shops in cities,but does not indicate that the logic of spatial distribution is invalid.Streets with accessibility advantages can still maintain stable vitality in continuous updates.Rational quantification of the distribution and changing trends of shops is still a core technology in urban design and renewal.
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