A Study on the Dynamic Impact of Financial Support for Agriculture on Agricultural Modernization——Testing Based on System GMM and Threshold Effect
Agricultural modernization is a top priority for China to ensure food security and build a strong agricultural country.There is a natural fit between fiscal expenditure on supporting agriculture and the construction of agricultural modernization.To study the role and impact of fiscal support for agriculture expenditure on agricultural modernization,this article first explores the mechanism by which fiscal support for agriculture expenditure affects the development of agricultural modernization from a theoretical perspective.Then,based on the connotation of agricultural modernization,the evaluation index system of agricultural modernization was constructed from five dimensions of agricultural mechanization and industrialization,and the entropy method was used to measure the agricultural modernization development index of 31 provinces in Chinese Mainland from 2011 to 2021.On this basis,the system GMM method and threshold effect model were selected to further verify the dynamic impact and threshold characteristics of fiscal expenditure on agricultural modernization.The research results indicate that the overall level of agricultural modernization in China has improved relatively slowly,and the development trend of agricultural modernization in each province is good,but there are regional differences and uneven development;The fiscal expenditure on supporting agriculture has a significant positive promoting effect on the level of agricultural modernization development in China;The relationship between fiscal support for agriculture expenditure and the level of agricultural modernization development is not simple linear,and the impact of fiscal support for agriculture expenditure on agricultural modernization has a single threshold characteristic.When the level of fiscal support for agriculture is at the first threshold level(10.872),the effect of fiscal support for agriculture on modernization is most significant.Finally,based on the research results,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from the aspects of strengthening coordinated development among different regions,further increasing fiscal expenditure on agriculture,and optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure on agriculture.The research conclusion provides a scientific decision-making basis for optimizing the fiscal support path for agricultural modernization.
Financial support for agricultureAgricultural modernizationDynamic impactSystem GMM modelThreshold effect
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