Study on the Impact of Real Estate Tax on Birth Rate:Empirical Testing by Penalized Synthetic Control Method
Establishing and improving the fertility support polices system is great significance to break out the dilemma of China's low fertility rate in China.This paper,from the perspective of real estate tax,estimates empirically the effect of the pilot real estate tax reform in Shanghai and Chongqing in 2011 on the fertility rate by Penalized Synthetic Control Method,which can provides some useful enlightenment for promoting the real estate tax reform and legislative process based by taking the fertility support into account.The results show that the housing tax policy in Shanghai has an obvious inhibitory effect on the fertility rate with continuity in time,while the property tax policy of Chongqing has a significant promoting effect on the fertility rate with marginal decline to a final relatively stable level.The impact of the property tax policy on the fertility rate in Shanghai and Chongqing is heterogeneous,which is mainly caused by the differences in the implementation rules of the property tax in the two regions.Based on the above conclusions,it is recommended that the future national property tax legislation should consider the regional differences in order to promote the population fertility,and the property tax policies should be in conjunction with other policies to enrich the fertility support policy system.
Real estate taxBirth ratePenalized synthetic control methodCost-benefit analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
