The Mega-city's Heavy Industrial Transformation and Its Effect on the Population Size:An Empirical Analysis of Guangzhou
This paper,from the perspective of heavy industrial transformation in the early 21st century,gives an explanation for the extraordinary change of the permanent population size before and after 2005 in Guangzhou in which the population had continually declined and then had dramatically increased around 2005.We selected the panel data of 38 great cities in China to carry out the analysis of latent category growth model and synthetic control method respectively,and found that the heavy industrial transformation in early 21st century in Guangzhou has great impacts on the permanent population size,especially on the size of floating population and employment population.In the earlier of the heavy industrial transformation,the replacement of some of the old light industries brought significant impacts on the population and the permanent population size declined particularly from 2000 to 2005.Meanwhile the domination of heavy chemical industries brought dramatic increase of population since 2006,and accordingly the employment population increased with the dramatic increase of population of productive and servicing in tertiary industry with significant higher education and quality.It demonstrates that Guangzhou,the no.4 big mega-city in China,has increased its population size dramatically,improved its employment structure and realized a higher quality urbanization by the implementation of heavy industrialization in 21st century.
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万方数据
