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生育意愿概念辨析

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生育意愿概念具有广义和狭义两种理解方式.广义的理解认为,生育意愿是一个和生育行为并列的概念体系,狭义的理解认为,生育意愿反映了人们认为的理想的生育状况.本文比较了生育理想、狭义的生育意愿、生育打算、生育预期、生育计划等相似概念之间的异同.研究发现,生育理想和狭义的生育意愿都具有不考虑现实限制的前提.生育打算、生育预期和生育计划都具有考虑现实限制的前提,但生育预期具有主观估计未来生育可能的含义,生育计划意味着身体和心理、经济和工作、生活方式和情感关系等各方面充分的生育准备.在此基础上,本文将Miller的TDIB序列中的"意愿-打算"扩展成一个"意愿-打算-预期-计划"序列,描绘了这些概念之间的递进关系,最后基于江苏省群众生育意愿与生育行为研究调查数据,使用回归分析和优势分析方法检验了这一序列模型的实证效果.
An Analysis of the Concepts of Fertility Desire
There are a broad and a narrow sense of fertility desire concept.In a broad sense,fertility desire is a conceptual system parallel with fertility behavior.In a narrow sense,fertility desire reflects the ideal fertility situation in people's mind.This paper compares the similarities and differences among fertility ideal,fertility desire,fertility intention,fertility expectation and fertility plan,and finds that fertility ideal and fertility desire are similar meaning with the premise of regardless of realistic limitations both,while fertility intention,fertility expectation and fertility plan all with the premise of considering realistic limitations.However fertility expectation has the meaning of subjective estimation of future possibility of fertility,and fertility plan means the couple are well prepared in all aspects of child bearing.Based on clarifying these concepts,this paper extends the desire-intention in Miller's TDIB sequence into a desire-intention-expectation-plan framework to describe the progressive relationship among these concepts.Finally,based on the data from Jiangsu Fertility Intention and Behavior Survey,we test the new conceptual framework empirically by regression analysis and dominance analysis.

Fertility desireFertility intentionFertility expectationFertility plan

胡波、李灵春

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中国人民大学 社会与人口学院,北京 100872

生育意愿 生育打算 生育预期 生育计划

国家社会科学基金重点项目

20ARK005

2024

南方人口
中山大学人口研究所

南方人口

CHSSCD
影响因子:1.16
ISSN:1004-1613
年,卷(期):2024.39(2)
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