首页|隔代照料对再生育意愿的影响研究——基于中国家庭调查的证据

隔代照料对再生育意愿的影响研究——基于中国家庭调查的证据

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在中国全面放开生育政策与中国生育率持续下降的双重背景下,本文使用 2010-2018 年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,考察了隔代照料对适龄人群再生育意愿的影响.结果显示:隔代照料对适龄人群再生育意愿具有显著的促进作用,并且有助于提升"全面二孩"政策的实施效果.在一系列稳健性检验和克服内生性因素处理后,本文结论依然成立.机制研究表明,隔代照料通过减少育龄夫妇照顾家人与家务活动的时间成本,提高孩子健康水平,从而提高其再生育意愿.进一步研究表明,隔代照料对不同育龄夫妇的再生育意愿影响程度存在差异,对于"双独生"育龄家庭,隔代照料对其再生育意愿的提升作用更为明显.本文丰富了生育意愿的家庭内部影响因素研究,为提升"全面二孩"政策实施效果,缓解中国生育率下降提供了政策方向.
The Elderly Parents'Assistance in Childcare and Fertility Willingness:Evidence from Household Survey of China
Amid China's fully liberalized fertility policy and the declining fertility rate,this paper investigates the effects of the elderly parents'assistance in childcare on the fertility intentions of the couples in their childbearing years based on the data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)2010-2018.The results show that the elderly parents'assistance in childcare has a significant positive effect on fertility intentions of the young couples,and it had enhanced the effective implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy.Considering endogenous issues,we test the finding by the application of alternative measurement,IV estimation,and other robustness tests,and the conclusion remains robust.Further mechanisms analysis shows that the elderly parents'childcare can promote the young couple's fertility willingness by reducing the time cost associated with caring for family and taking housework as well as by the enhancement effect of the children's health.However,the elderly parents'assistance in childcare on fertility intentions vary significantly among the different couples of childbearing ages,and it enhances more effectively the fertility intentions of the couples which both spouses are the only-child of their parents.This research enriches the research on intra-family factors influencing fertility intentions and offers a directions for the polices to mitigate the decline of China's fertility rate.

Elderly parents'assistance in childcareFertility willingnessChina's fertility policyMechanism study

刘粲、谭莹

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西南财经大学 金融学院,四川 成都 611130

西南财经大学 统计学院,四川 成都 611130

隔代照料 再生育意愿 生育政策 机制研究

国家自然科学基金青年基金四川省哲学社会科学基金青年项目

72303180SCJJ23ND420

2024

南方人口
中山大学人口研究所

南方人口

CHSSCD
影响因子:1.16
ISSN:1004-1613
年,卷(期):2024.39(2)
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