基于SIRS模型的核电事故致因传播机制研究
Research on the Causal Propagation Mechanism of Nuclear Power Accidents Based on SIRS Model
戴立操 1梁紫怡 1张美慧1
作者信息
- 1. 南华大学 人因研究所,湖南 衡阳 421001
- 折叠
摘要
文章用自然语言处理技术对152 起核电厂执照运行事件报告(Licensed Operation Event Report,LOER)进行风险致因分析,得出风险致因复杂网络的相关数据,借助改进SIR传染病模型,结合核电运行事件风险传播的特征,构建了适用于核电领域的改进传播模型.文章对核电运行事件致因传播过程进行动态仿真,对比了不同因素对传播风险的影响差异,对当前的核电安全管理工作进行优化.
Abstract
In this study,152 Licensed Operation Event Reports(LOER)of nuclear power plants were first analyzed for risk causation through natural language processing technology,and the relevant data of the complex network of risk causes were obtained.Then with the help of the improved SIR infectious disease model,it is combined with the characterization of the risk propagation of nu-clear power operational events.An improved propagation model applicable to the nuclear power sector is constructed.Dynamic simula-tion of the causal propagation process of nuclear power operation events compares the differences in the impact of different factors on the propagation risk to optimize the current management efforts.
关键词
核电运行事件报告/风险传染/传染病模型/传播动力学Key words
Licensed Operation Event Reports(LOER)/risk contagion/infectious disease model/propagation dynamic引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据